… will be coming shortly.  I have all the projections I am planning to use at this point but it’s been time consuming to compile them all into one database.

Hopefully I’ll be done this weekend, at which time I can start posting again about nut shots and absurdity.

Well, at least until the fourth quarter. And to be honest, I guess that the title isn’t quite true since if I have to identify with either offense or defense… I’ve always had more of a defensive mindset and actually, I really did think that both defenses played a ‘Super Bowl’ caliber type game.

As for the offenses? Seemed to me more like neither team wanted to lose the game so they never really went out trying to win the game. Personally, I think that Eli Manning was good… good enough to win and played a good game; but calling Eli Manning an MVP is a farce. I suppose maybe he is the MVP in the absence of any other suitable players, but he had fewer yards and a worse completion percentage than his opponent, fumbled twice and thankfully had a teammate fall on the ball, not to mention Manning’s interception with 11:53 left to go in the 2nd quarter could have easily cost his team the game. Basically, the key play of the game was one where although Manning evaded the pass rush and got out of two players with a hold on him, David Tyree made the better play of the two, and bailed out Manning’s desperation heave by making a one-handed catch using his helmet to brace the ball surrounded by about 3 Pats defenders who might make the interception if Tyree doesn’t make the play of the game. So no, I have a hard time awarding Eli the MVP award when “his” best play was more attributable to Tyree than anyone else.  Note, that if Tyree doesn’t catch that ball, or deflects it, there are 2 or 3 Pats defenders in the area to make the pic.

I really wish the league had the cajones to step up and give the MVP award to who really deserved it most: the Giants’ defensive line. What about James Butler who was 5th on the team in the regular season in tackles, but led the team in the playoffs and Super Bowl? How about Justin Tuck? His forced fumble with 0:10 left to go in the first half may have saved the Giants 3 points. I know that Gostkowski’s career long is 52, so with the Pats on the Giant’s 44, that’s a 61 yard field goal. If they make a quick first down on that play - instead of a sack and fumble - maybe that’s the 3 points New England needed to at least take the game into overtime?  We’ll never know because of Tuck’s play.
To me, it’s just sad that on a night where the defense shined for New York, that the league was unable to recognize defensive accomplishment and instead awarded a quarterback whose QB rating was the second-worst of his postseason and threw his only interception of the postseason… so not even his best game and he is the “most valuable” player?

So, congrats to Manning, and the Giants for their accomplishments, but shame on the NFL for once again marginalizing defensive performances in lieu of awarding the MVP to a more marketable and recognizable player.

P.S. - This is the second time that a team from Boston has gone on to lose a championship after their win was announced/ presumed prematurely.  The other of course being the 1986 Red Sox team who ended up losing game 6 after the scoreboard had announced “CONGRATULATIONS BOSTON RED SOX” with one out still remaining in the bottom of the 10th.  That has no relevance to my post, but I found it amusing.

So today was a full snow day here in Pullman for WSU students. As such, my mind has gone into a state that I can only describe as gelatinous. As such, I’m passing on the sports commentary today, and sticking with some Japanese game shows, which, well… they are strange. They are definitely strange.

Happy Snow Day To All

[Sometimes its better to devote an entire post to a subject. Other times a line or two is all it takes. In those cases, its time for the cross legged mutant]

Wow, been so busy lately that so many sports stories have slipped through the cracks here. So with a snow day at hand, and a little beer to fuel the fire, let’s take some shots… and then I’ll blog about something…

- What in the name of Zeus’s balls is going on here? It’s super bowl weekend and the headlines are about models, Jessica Simpson, friggin’ boots, and something about pink underwear? I’m almost half-glad that we don’t get Fox with basic cable here in Pullman because the Super Bowl certainly ain’t about football anymore. For a pure sports guy like me (well, math too, but that’s not really cool to talk about), the Super Bowl has become insufferable.

- Well, the NHL All-Star game came and went… again, with little fanfare. Hell, I didn’t even know it was that time until I realized that the Sharks hadn’t played a game in more than three days. It it literally pathetic that there are fans like me craving some hockey and yet the NHL is so damn stupid they put their marquee games on the dame time as college bowl games and the damn Versus network, which I can only assume is a channel dedicated to the Norwegian duo Kings of Convenience.

- Bud Selig got a contract extension. Ha! And there were people out there that said that the Mitchell investigation was a fruitless effort. Hell no! I bet if Bud knew that weaseling out the back door of the steroids saga was as easy as putting Roger Clemens’s balls in a vice grip… well,… let’s just say Roger wouldn’t have had kids.

- Sweet merciful crap. A month ago, I got crap from a website I won’t name - not only did they totally misrepresent me, they also got the name of my damn site wrong - for saying that the Oakland A’s won the trade with Arizona when they sent over Dan Haren for 6 top prospects. Well, now that Johan Santana got traded for about half that, I’m waiting for an apology. I can’t feel sorry for the Twins though; they teased the Red Sox and Yankees to the point they got blue balls and decided to go home. That’s what happens when you try on the big boy pants before you’re ready.

I can’t believe this is the same GM that got Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser, and Francisco Liriano out of a surly backstop.

- Presidential hopefuls are weighing in on the Clemens saga? Seriously, you’ve got to be f*****g kidding me.

- MLB is asking neighbors of their umpires if they have holes in their bedsheets, secretly grow marijuana in their backyards, or if they have as many illegitimate children as Shawn Kemp. Yea, I suppose the umps are probably a little bit lonely without getting crapped on since October. My guess is that 3 months of no one spitting on you, cursing you out, or throwing bats at you can really make a guy forget about all the job perks.

-Former Ohio State basketball coach Jim O’Brien, who was fired and suspended by the NCAA for paying a recruit, will be allowed to coach again as of March 10th. “I am pleased that my 3 1/2-year battle with the NCAA has finally come to an end and resulted in victory,” - O’Brien. Ummm, how exactly was this victory? All they did was change the start date of his punishment? If that’s how he defines “victory”, I’m not so sure anyone’s going to be knocking down his door.

Or should I say, snow day… uugh. Sorry, but it’s hard for me to get excited about a snow day when it was a pain in the ass to get to campus, a pain in the ass to get home, and I only got home one hour earlier than I normally would have. But, I guess an hour is an hour, so I’ll take it.

So yea, officially, the word from WSU was “President Floyd has made the decision to close the WSU-Pullman Campus except for essential personnel at 10 AM this morning. Check this site for additional information as it becomes available.” However, the athletic website says that, “despite poor weather conditions and the closure of campus beginning at 10 a.m. Thursday, the Washington State University men’s basketball game against California schedule for tonight is still set to tipoff at 7:05 p.m. PT.”

So essentially, then the official policy is that Men’s Hoops is an “essential” service, and will remain on schedule. I tend to agree, and because of that, and in anticipation of tonight’s “essential” game, let’s take a quick preview of their next two games:

WSU vs California

Look, Cal at this point is a brand name. Without keeping up with college basketball, one might assume that this would be one of the games of the week. Well, not really. Cal has two wins in Pac-10 play: one against the sorrowful Beavers of Corvallis, and one more against USC - which looks impressive now, but that was their first game in the Pac-10 this year, and part of an 0-4 introduction to the Pac-10 for a very young and inexperienced team. Otherwise, I’d have to say that their best win was against either San Diego State, or Nevada.

The other thing to consider, is that WSU is 8-0 at home, while Cal is 2-2 on the road - with the two wins being OSU and Nevada.

So what it comes down to is this; this is still an athletic team, and although the Cougs won’t need to be at their best to win, they can’t have another night shooting the ball like they did last weekend, and they need to keep Ryan Anderson, the Pac-10’s leader in PPG, to a minimum.

WSU 64
Cal 52

WSU vs Stanford

Stanford is harder to predict. They have some good wins, some bad losses, and seem to play best at home, where they probably have their biggest win against Arizona State. Not surprisingly, Stanford scores fewer points and allows more points on the road than at home - this is the team who lost to the Siena Saints, the same team that dropped to Memphis in a 58-102 beat down earlier this month.

Last year, the two teams split the series. So I think that Stanford has slipped some, while WSU is really taking where they left off last year. With such wild mood swings, I have to make a wild conjecture here.

WSU 59
Stanford 47

[The Elephant Walk is my somewhat regular column on Oakland Athletics baseball. Results, performances, transactions or other thoughts I might have about the A’s]

Can you tell I can’t wait until baseball season?

This time around I’d like to start where I left off. Since last time, the A’s have signed Emil Brown, traded away Mark Kotsay, and picked up a huge bill for Chad Gaudin in 2008.

Emil Brown

To me, this was a good deal. For $1.45 million, the A’s get a stopgap for right field until Carlos Gonzalez is ready to take over… which should be 2009 at the latest. This one is so simple, there’s not much to say: when you are rebuilding your team with phenoms, it’s important not to rush them to the bigs. Good stuff Billy.

Mark Kotsay to Atlanta for Joey Devine and Jamie Richmond

I’m really not sure how I stand on this one yet.  When I first saw the trade, I was a little appalled that we agreed to pick up $5 million of Kotsay’s 2008 salary.  See, to me, dumping Kotsay was about the money.  But when I started to see how livid Braves fans were that they gave up Joey Devine.  The fans online seemed to think that Devine was a top closer for sure… as fans sometimes do seem to overvalue prospects in general, especially their own prospects.  Baseball America seems to think he has setup man material.  Either way, he had the best slider in the Atlanta organization and a pretty nasty sinker.  Basically, if Devine right now is a right-handed specialist.

As for Richmond, he doesn’t appear to be anything more than a minor league arm.  He has good control, but nothing nasty that would indicate major league success.

So what this trade comes down to is: will Joey Devine ultimately be worth his $5 million price tag?  Considering the quickly rising cost of pitching in baseball, chances are that he just might be worth the cost.

Speaking of Overpriced Pitching…

The A’s Chad Gaudin settled in arbitration to a one-year, $1.775 million contract.  Now, I am an A’s fan, so I should probably be talking about Gaudin’s minor league stats.  I should probably see how much cheaper he is than any other player on the market.

But what I can’t get over, as a fan, is why I have to pay $50 for a decent seat and a guy whose 2007 WHIP/ERA line of 1.53/4.42 and a career line of 1.57/4.46 gets nearly $2 million to basically be a AAAA player while people work their butts off 40-60 hours a week for less than 5% of what he makes.  A-Rod’s salary?  I get that.  He’s unbelievably good.  Gaudin?  Even as an A’s fan I’ve got to question if these guys are really worth that kind of dough.

How ’bout some cheaper seats instead?

This is it folks, the final installment of Yahoo! expert Chris Carter vs a 2006 North Dakota quarter.

First off, don’t get me wrong, I don’t dislike Chris Carter; I don’t question his authority in the matters of football. I did however wonder if predicting the playoffs in the NFL, was as much of a crap shoot as I thought it was. Essentially, the answer is “yes”.

My thinking was that if there are two teams in each game, you have a 50/50 chance of predicting the correct team. Well, as luck would have it, 50/50 is the same odds you get of flipping a coin… let’s say… a quarter. So the experament was born: could a quarter predict NFL playoff games as well, or better than the resident expert on Yahoo!.

How It Works

It’s quite simple really, I flip a quarter for each game, in order of their start times. Heads, and the quarter ‘predicts’ a victory by the home team. Tails, and the quarter ‘predicts’ a victory by the away team. Then I just compare those predictions to Carter’s and viola, we have an epic duel.

Weeks 1-3

So, overall, the quarter did quite well. In week 1, the quarter correctly predicted victories by Jacksonville, New York, and San Diego. Week 2 was a little worse, only getting the wins by New England and San Diego correct. Finally, in the Conference Finals, the quarter went against New England and of course got that one wrong as well as the Green Bay game. So in the end, the quarter correctly predicted 5 of the 10 playoff games to date: exactly 50%.

Similarly, Chris Carter’s percentage of correct predictions also sits at 50%, as he went into week 3 with 4 of 8 and was 1 for 2 in the Conference Finals. As a matter of fact, Chris Carter was correct on exactly one-half of his picks in every single round of the playoffs. So if you think that one year and a few coin flips proves a point, I’d have to argue that Chris made my point himself by being correct exactly as many times he was incorrect.

So I don’t know what Yahoo! is paying their expert; mine only cost twenty-five cents…

Super Bowl

So this is it. It all comes down to this. Like he has for the last two rounds, Carter went with the favorite - New England. So what happens now is that I have an all-or-nothing coin flip where there are three possible scenarios:

1. The coin flip is heads - the quarter and Carter perform equally no matter the result;
2. The coin flip is tails and the Pats win the game, Carter slips out of this one by a hair and I banish my quarter to predicting figure skating competitions… not that I’m into that sort of thing;
3. The coin flip is tails and the Giants pull off one of the bigger upsets in Super Bowl history - my quarter will now sleep beside me on the bed every night… my fiancee can sleep on the couch.

So, here it goes… and the flip is: Heads - New England.

Well, you know what, I’m thinking that this is the Super Bowl, and that’s it way too much of a coincidence that my quarter, happened to pick the Pats. Maybe it was a wrinkle in the carpet, maybe it was the way I flipped the coin. I think the magnitude of this calls for best 2 of 3. So at least one more toss, for good measure…

Heads. Yep, heads. Two in a row, I’m not even going for a third flip because if it’s heads again I’m going to be a little freaked out.

So that’s it then. No matter what happens in the Super Bowl, I have determined that a 2006 North Dakota quarter can predict NFL playoff games with the same accuracy as a paid analyst.

Really?  Drunken masses of angry fans incite violent behavior?  What’s next? Televised golf puts people to sleep.

So for those of you thinking this ain’t rocket science, it was interesting to an economist who also figured out that violent movies=less violence.   So why the difference? The article covers it, but I think you may have guessed it already.  Yes, that’s right, our little friend alcohol might play some role in why football fans tend to do some stupid things to their own towns.

The argument is that if violent movies take people off the street and into theaters - which in turn decreases crime for a few hours.  So why then, do you run and hide in Columbus when the Buckeyes get beat at home?  My guess, is that if people were drinking for several hours before the movie started, that you might, just might, not have the same result.

I think the most interesting part though is that the violent outbursts really don’t happen when your team is supposed to lose the game.  I guess in that case the alcohol is more for your sorrows than for your enjoyment.

• Does College Football Cause Higher Crime? (Freakenomics)

Yea, I know. Fantasy baseball drafts are still at least a month away. That, and I have barely posted at all, especially concerning WSU hoops, the A’s, the Sharks etc. Well, all I can say is:

• I am taking 19 credits this semester (full time is 12)
• I have 4 - count ‘em - 4 part-time jobs
• I am working on a very comprehensive ranking system for roto fantasy baseball based on 2008 predicted stats by at least 4-6 different sources, my own position scarcity system, and adjustments for head-to-head, and keeper leagues.

So yea, I’ve been busy. Way to busy to write about people getting kicked in the balls or about how much I think guys like Brady Quinn and Scott Loeffler are overrated. So, considering that I have logged quite a few hours compiling data and reviewing stats, allow me to share some observations as you get ready for the upcoming fantasy season…

Catchers are friggin’ worthless

Worthless I tell ya. Seriously, many teams might be better of not drafting a catcher… at all. First off, not a single catcher - not even Russell Martin or Victor Martinez - made my top 115. Would have been top 120 but Martin snuck in at 119. So although I still have to add 2-3 sets of projected stats to the rankings… right now it looks like in a 12 team league, the first catcher should go in about the 9th or 10th round. That’s not what’s going to happen- some fool will take Martin in the 5th or 6th, I guarantee it - meaning that any rational manager is going to be stuck with absolute crap. I think the standard Yahoo! league is a 12 team, 21 man roster. In that case, there are only 252 draft picks. Let me list the catchers who actually rank in the top 252 players for 2008 based on their projected stats:

• Russell Martin (119)
• Victor Martinez (152)
• Joe Mauer (197)
• Jorge Posada (201)
• Brian McCann (242)

Seriously folks… that’s it. So let me tell you what’s going to happen as a result: all 5 of these catchers are going to go way too soon in a draft. So the question then, is how to manage catchers in the standard league. I have seen teams in the past go the entire season without a catcher… and honestly that might not be a terrible idea. If the top 5 catchers are drafted earlier than they should be, then there should be some players slipping through the cracks with higher value. In many cases, it might actually be beneficial to skip the position entirely.

For those of you not willing to take the risk of losing stats, my suggestion then would be to wait until the last few round to draft a catcher, and target one based solely on a single stat. So a guy like Bengie Molina might not even get drafted in some leagues, but his .270-.280 batting average at least won’t hurt your team, and he is bound to get some hits, homeruns, runs and RBI… right?

Head-To-Head Leagues Really Need To Take A Look At Quality Starts

You know, in a roto league, all that matters in the end are the overall numbers. But for anyone who plays in head-to-head leagues, you know very well that one bad week from your ace pitcher can absolutely kill you. With that in mind, I think that one of the most important stats for you to take a look at is the percentage of quality starts. Basically, out of my head-to-head team, I’d rather have consistency than a guy who goes out every other time and dominates. I need a guy to be on every week.

One guy that kind of surprised me, even though I’m an A’s fan and have watched him pitch for a few years now, is Dan Haren. Despite a lackluster second half, he still finished with 82% of his starts being quality starts. Comparing this to starters rankings, I’d like to see if there are any steals that head-to-head managers might take advantage of considering that no rankings take those kind of things into account. One site I really respect is RotoAuthority, so let’s use their latest pitcher rankings to see if I can come up with some bargains, or at least some kind of method for choosing between pitchers in your draft a few months out:

• Right off the bat, it’s Dan Haren again, who is the #10 starter, but #2 last year in percentage of quality starts.
• Fausto Carmona is ranked 38th, and 81% of his starts were quality starts; I guess many think that he can’t repeat his 2007 numbers but even so, he was consistent.
• Brad Penny, ranked 46th was 6th last year in percentage of quality starts.
• Tim Hudson;33rd and 74%
• Orlando Hernandez; unranked and 71%
• Shawn Hill; unranked and 69%

Also, that means that there are some lemons out there; pitchers who have great numbers or are ranked highly but their percentage of quality starts suggests that some weeks you will have wished you passed them up and taken Ross Gload instead. Just kidding, no one ever gets passed up for Ross Gload. Anyway, here’s some stats to make you think some:

• Josh Beckett, who is ranked 6th, had a quality start 2 of every3 games. That’s kind of worrysome for a guy who could be one of the top pitchers in the draft.
• Cole Hamels, right ahead of Beckett at 5th, had a quality start in just over half of his appearances. He’s young, so that might shape up this year… but still.
• Johan Santana, pretty much everyone’s #1, has had his QS% slip from 74% in 2004 to 73%, 71%, and64% in 2005, 06, and 07. He’s still got to be up there on your draft list, but you might drop him down a notch just in case and wait to see if you can get him cheaply instead of using a 1st round pick on him as his projections suggest you should.
• Scott Kazmir, everyone’s favorite because he racks up the strikeouts, only had a quality start 56% of the time. Not a guy I want to take as the #9 pitcher in the draft. I’d pass on him entirely in head-to-head leagues because right behind him is Dan Haren (82%).
• Brandon Webb, at #3 had 65% of his starts resulting in quality starts.
• Carlos Zambrano, 23rd and 53%.

I’m sure I missed some, and by no means am I trying to imply these guys are crap; all I’m saying is that rankings… pretty much all rankings… are based on full-season stats which favors a roto format. So if you are in a head-to-head format, the two things you need to pay much more attention to are injury history and consistency (i.e. - QS%) beacuse one bad week can really cost you down the stretch… or in the playoffs.

It’s been way too long since I’ve talked Cougar hoops, so let’s get that going.

So, the last time I checked in on the team, they had just finished beating Washington in Seattle, and I said that if they won one more game on that road trip, it was going to be a good season. Well, they won that one game, beating USC in LA, and then lost to UCLA a few days later.

But here’s how I see it; they came out completely flat in the first half and probably let the magnitude of that game get to them. As much as you want to talk about the team’s veteran leadership, none of these guys have ever been in a game with that much hype. So the fact that they were down by double digits before anyone knew what happened was bound to happen. So, what I took from that game is that they did fight back and outplay UCLA in the second half of that game.

After UCLA, it’s been wins against Oregon State and Oregon. Oregon was big since we really have not beaten them in quite some time.

In the end I still think this is a wait-and-see game. I guess maybe I should be more excited about how good the team is, but when it comes to college hoops I really have had the attitude that nothing really counts until March… and we’re still a ways away from then.