[When it comes time to talk San Jose Sharks hockey, it’s time to Jump the Shark(ie). A column based on my thoughts, observations, and commentary on my favorite NHL franchise - and named in homage to one really crappy episode of Happy Days that more or less, signified the coming of the end ]

Ron Wilson… Pack Your Crap and Get Out

So in my last Sharks post, I talked about the offseason changes that the Sharks needed to make this year. Firing Ron Wilson was certainly not one of them. In my mind, Wilson was given a team that severely lacked a marquee goal scorer, and did the proper thing of focusing on defense and limiting their opponents’ chances. So my previous focus was on the Sharks needing to find someone who they could count on to score 40+ goals a year.

What scares me about this move is that quite often, when coaching regimes change, they change into polar opposites. The Sharks played a stifling defense but suffered on offense. My fear is that they hire someone who wants to “open things up” and focus their game more on offense. Only problem with that to me is that both Los Angeles and Tampa Bay outscored the Sharks this year… and those two teams tied for the worst teams in the NHL this season.

Statistical Approach to 2008 Offseason

So since I didn’t see this coming, I figured I better take a step back and look at what was important to winning hockey games in 2007-2008. To do this, I took a look at most team stats available, and compared statistical correlation between that stat category, and team points (two points for a win, one for OLT). To explain, a correlation of 1.0 means that there is a direct linear relationship between a stat category and a correlation of 0 means that stat has nothing to do with team points in the big picture. The results are as follows:

One thing that surprised me was the complete lack of correlation between faceoff percentage and team points. So many analysts stress the importance of winning faceoffs… and really it has nothing to do with winning and losing hockey games in the big picture (certainly there are specific games that have come down to a key faceoff win… but overall it just doesn’t matter). The other one is shots on goal. One might think that more shots on goal leads to more goals and hence, more wins. Maybe not.

Obviously, what is important is keeping the puck out of your own net, scoring on the power play, and limiting your opponent’s scoring chances; under the guidance of Ron Wilson, the Sharks finished in the top five for all three of these stat categories. So then what went wrong? Well, the team finsihed in the top five for all three categories in the regular season. In the playoffs, the Sharks currently sit second in the average number of shots allowed and fourth in goals against average. So nothing wrong there, with the team or its coaching. The problem, was being 12th out of 16 teams in the average number of power play goals per game, and hey, 12th in power play conversion percentage. Strangely enough, when I go back to last year’s playoffs, the Sharks were 13th in PP%, and wow, 10th the year before that.

So statistically, the downfall of the Sharks can really be pinpointed down to a lack of power play goals in the playoffs.

So What Does It All Mean?

To me, it means that Sharks fans should be wary of Ron Wilson’s firing. Like I said before, in pro sports when a lack of offense - in this case power play goals - is suspected to be the downfall of the team, a polar opposite coach is often hired who forgets defense in the name of more offense. If this were to happen, it would mean some serious problems for the Sharks who, in my opinion, already have the problem of wearing some seriously hideous unis.

It also means that my original analysis may have been spot on - that the Sharks just need a marquee goal scorer. The fact that their leading scorer put fewer than 30 pucks in the back of the net to me means that there is no “go to guy” who steps up in the playoffs. Also, Joe Thornton is one of the elite passers in the game… and shouldn’t be relied upon to score our goals.

The Sharks Are Just Being Cheap

So, in the end, Ron Wilson’s firing to me is a smokescreen for failure to develop a marquee scorer from within (i.e. have not drafted well), and also aren’t willing to spend the money to bring a Stanley Cup to the Bay Area. The fact of the matter is, despite increasing payroll by $10 million in the past three seasons (the Sharks actually lowered payroll by 5% this year) the Sharks have the 20th highest payroll in all of hockey. I think that the fans, who helped the team average 99.5% capacity deserve at least a payroll/ financial commitment that reflects their support for the team.

Folks, in the end, I think this firing really is a diversion to keep people from really looking into the failures of San Jose management and ownership when it comes to drafting, trading, and financial commitment. Maybe you can completely blame a coach for failing to convert power plays in the playoffs, but I don’t…. because long before Ron Wilson was head coach, the Sharks struggled with PP% in the 2000-01 playoffs and the 2001-02 playoffs… and something tells me that if we are good enough to get back next year, that unless management opens their eyes, it will be the downfall once again in the spring of 2009.

[Sometimes its better to devote an entire post to a subject. Other times a line or two is all it takes. In those cases, its time for the cross legged mutant]

- In New York a drunken man fully decked out in a tux was given a felony DWI for driving a riding lawnmower while intoxicated. Who knows the innermost workings of a drunken man’s head… but considering that he already had a previous DWI, my best guess would be that at the time, this seemed like the ‘responsible’ thing to do.

- Academics cost the WSU football team here in Pullman 8 scholarships. The good news is that new coach Paul Wulff’s former school, Eastern Washington, scored higher than average. Because to be brutally honest folks, if we aren’t one of the leaders of the Pac-10 in scholar athletes, when it comes to football, we aren’t going to be leading in much. I guess then maybe I had the wrong impression about Bill Doba… it’s either that or this was out of his hands, because I didn’t think he’d allow this to happen under his watch. But if he did, then football aside, it may have been a good move because I’ve always felt integrity is one of the perks of being a WSU Cougar fan. I’d hate to lose that.

- A female runner in Texas took the 1A Texas team track and field championship… by herself. That and she was limited to only five events. Who said there’s no “I” in team?

- Something tells me that Lou Holtz was onto something when he got rid of Troy Hambrick back in 1999 for “off the field” issues.

- According to Nelson Figueora there is no ‘cheerleading’ in baseball. “[The Washington Nationals] were cheerleading in the dugout like a bunch of softball girls,” Figueroa said. “I’m a professional, just like anybody else. I take huge offense to that. If that’s what a last-place team needs to do to fire themselves up, so be it. I think you need to show a little bit more class, a little bit more professionalism.” Firstly, who said pro athletes couldn’t have fun? And secondly… who the hell is Nelson Figuera?

- I have major problems with the NHL. This weekend I settled down on the couch to try and watch the weekend playoff games on NBC as I have been for a few weeks now… and the morons… er… powers that be apparently decided to only broadcast game 5 in each of the two conference finals rather than games 2 and 5. Well, guess what? Thanks to that decision, someone who actually wants to watch hockey, can’t. For a league as desperate for fans as the NHL is, they certainly don’t know how to market their product. Pitiful.

- You know, I remember this offseason everyone crying about the Florida Marlins’ payroll, and how terrible it was that they would trade away both Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera. Well, it’s May and the Marlins are tied for the best winning percentage in baseball. They may not stay up there, but a lot of well-paid professionals and critics owe everyone an apology.

[When it comes time to talk San Jose Sharks hockey, it’s time to Jump the Shark(ie). A column based on my thoughts, observations, and commentary on my favorite NHL franchise - and named in homage to one really crappy episode of Happy Days that more or less, signified the coming of the end ]

You know, I’m trying to keep this as positive as possible, but this was just a really bad way to end such a great season. The Sharks dominated the entire NHL for more than a month and then struggled to stay alive as long as they did in the playoffs.Obviously the team peaked way too soon, and either the magic ran out of other teams learned how to attack/ defend us by the time the playoffs hit. It also didn’t help any that we drew two teams in Calgary and Dallas that were quite familiar with the Sharks. So rather than start pining over the playoffs specifically, let’s take a quick look at what went wrong this year and what the Sharks need to do to address this in the offseason.

Offseason Goals

The offseason goals are just that: goals… more of them. I see two problems with the Sharks when it comes to goal scoring: 1. The Sharks were 19th in the regular season in goals scored, and 2. The Sharks top goal scorer (Big Joe Thornton) only had 29 goals. The second may not seem obviously a problem, but only ten teams (including the Sharks) had a top scorer with fewer than 30 goals. Of those teams, only 3 teams made it to the Conference Semifinals: the Sharks, Rangers and Avalanche. Needless to say, neither of these teams really did very well - the Sharks were less than ten minutes away from dropping the series 4 games to 1.

I guess what I’m trying to say is that there has to be some sort of correlation between goals scored, not just by a team, but also by their leading scorer. That being said, the Sharks have three options: do nothing (most likely), sign a free agent this offseason, make a trade, or really work with their prospects to make sure that they get production in 2008-09.

Free Agents/Trades

Honestly, when it comes to trades, who knows. It’s really impossible to predict the trades Dougie Wilson makes, so I’m not even going to try, but I will state the obvious: the Sharks traded up to draft Logan Couture who will be blocked by Pat Marleau. That is all I will say. As for free agents that will be available this offseason, there are a few I wouldn’t mind seeing the Sharks pick up… but they probably won’t. As you can tell, I’m picking out the guys who aren’t past their primes (a la Jeremy Roenick).

Bryan Campbell (28 years old)

This one is obvious and needs no analysis; he makes their PP work.

Sean Avery (27 years old)

First, yes, Avery is a huge douchebag. But he’d be our douchebag. In only 57 games this year, the agitator picked up 15 goals and 125 shots on goal. His attitude alone would be a great addition to the team; let’s get our swagger back.

John-Michael Liles (26 years old)

Sure, I’d rather they just find a way to keep Campbell, but if they can’t, Liles has pretty good offensive skills and put 163 shots on goal this year; that was good enough to make him 14th among all defenseman.

Ryan Malone (27 years old)

Ryan is definitely not going to solve anything major, but a one-year contract wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world. Malone scored 27 goals this year, and knows what it’s like to play with an elite center.

Marian Hossa (28 years old)

Okay, so this just plain isn’t going to happen. Hossa is arguably the top free agent in this year’s class, and there will be a bidding war for his 35-40 goals a year. I can only imagine though what he could do on a line with Thornton…

Prospecting

The main reason why the Sharks won’t be signing any of the wingers I mentioned above is the fact that they have two forwards in the top 19 prospects in hockey. Both Devin Setoguchi and Logan Couture have the potential to become a second-line forward and first-line forward respectively. If Couture can at least make the leap to the Sharks’ second line next year and put 15-20 goals into the net, that will be a huge boost.As I mentioned earlier, Couture is blocked at his natural position by Marleau, but maybe Marleau can shift to Thornton’s wing full time or Couture can play on Malreau’s wing?

I don’t know, but it seems like before they do anything drastic they need to give this guy a good look. Unfortunately Setoguchi probably tops out as a second line player… as does almost every winger in their organization. Hence, Devin is not the answer, but how about top two lines of Marleau-Thornton-Michalek and Setoguchi-Couture-Cheechoo?

Well, that’s it for now. If the Sharks do anything exciting this offseason of course I’ll have to cover it; otherwise Jumping the Shark(ie) is going on hiatus for a little while…

Yea, much to your general dismay, the scourge of the Internet is back. Just finished my complex analysis take-home final to complete a hellish 19 credit, 3 job spring semester. Thus, it’s time to start talking sports again… smack me if I accidentally drop in any references to Mobius transformations or analyticity in the complex plane…

- Let’s talk basketball. Well, let’s talk Shaquille O’Neal. Let me say here and now that Shaquille O’Neal is one of the worst basketball players in the history of the NBA. Don’t get me wrong, Shaq is one of the best all-time low post players. But if Micah Owings can take Dave Borkowski yard… to the opposite field… then I don’t think that it’s out of line to expect Shaq to hit more than half his free throws in the playoffs. Any rugby fans out there? This guy is the Johah Lomu of basketball. And yes, that means that I think that Johan is also a horrendous all-around rugby player.

[Now that I’ve pissed of basketball fans and 92% of the southern hemisphere, let’s move on.]

- Back in December, The Big Lead ripped me (and got my site’s name wrong… and rejected my attempts to comment on the site and correct the mistake…) for saying that the A’s looked like they would ultimately be the winners of the Haren trade. Well? Preliminary results are in, and yes, the D-Backs are on top of the baseball world. But how ’bout them A’s, huh? While Haren has chipped in 5 quality starts for the D-Backs, Dana Eveland and Greg Smith, who weren’t even the headliners in the deal, have quietly put up 6 QS for the division-leading Athletics.

Anyone who followed the A’s last year knows just how desperately they needed depth in the rotation. Well, guess what? They got that, and more. Carlos Gonzalez, the 25th ranked prospect according to Project Prospect, still hasn’t even been given a chance to chip in. All I’m saying is give this deal a chance to work itself out, and I’m sure that unless the D-Backs win the World Series, Beane is going to come out smelling like roses.

- That was seriously the weirdet NFL draft I’ve ever seen. Maybe it was just me, but I think the only way anyone could have followed exactly what was going on is if they had imbibed copious amounts of cough syrup.

- Okay, so it’s May and no team can use Barry Bonds. Seriously? I’ve been one of his biggest critics and think he is a complete douchebag… but a douchebag that can flat out mash. Considering how much money MLB owners milked out of that walking bag of hormones, it’s complete garbage that now no one wants to sign him… especially the Giants. That entire organization has slowly turned to crap, and the only reason why no one noticed (and bought tickets) was because of Barry. So love him or hate him, it’s total hypocracy that he is not on a major league roster right now.

[At this point, this post has turned into the airing of grievances… but I got a lot of problems with you people! And now you’re gonna hear about it!]

- So Will Leitch of Deadspin got thrown under the bus by Buzz Bissinger… and I have mixed feelings about the whole thing. It doesn’t help that three times I’ve sent in stories of mine to the Deadspin staff only to see them cover the story days later and no mention or link to my pathetic little site. I guess that’s what happens when you go big time. But I’m getting off track.

To me, Deadspin is no longer a blog… I think that being a blogger is somewhat in line with being punk-rock: once you got big, you lose the label. So it was unfair that they got trashed for all blogs, but not unfair that they got ripped. To me, it’s an abuse of power to have the readership they do and not venture into more serious sports jounalism; dick and fart jokes are what keep sites like this afloat… I don’t think Deaspin needs them anymore. That’s just me though… and I’m sure I’ll hear about it, but I’d like to see them do more.

I guess it’s like seeing your team lose in the first round of the playoffs every year; you know they are capable of more, and you’d like to see their best effort…

- I’m going to be the 1,000,000th person to say this, but the Central Washington softball team deserves all of our applause, admiration, and support. If you haven’t seen this yet, take a look, because it reminds us all about why we love sports, and really makes me proud to be a part of sports and sports fan:

Anyone who reads this, knows that during the NFL playoffs, my 2006 quarter performed at the same level as the Yahoo! experts in terms of predicting the outcomes of each game. So in that spirit, I gave this month’s NCAA basketball tournament a try… not so good.

The Results

So here’s what I ended up with for a Final Four: Washington State vs USC and Duke vs Temple. Then, the quarter gave me Temple beating USC in the finals. Not great. It will be interesting to see just how many correct picks the quarter did make, but it’s not looking great…

Every year in the draft, the experts tout their “sleepers”, who then quickly get taken up four rounds before they were valued at. Well, only problem with that strategery is that even if the guy pans out and produces stats at the level you reached for him at, most likely you still did not get a bargain.

No, to me the entire concept of the “sleeper” has gotten so screwed up, that I’m really starting to hate the word. I mean, how many times have you been in the leagues where rookies and “sleepers” get taken in the first 5-7 rounds? Again, unless you get them at or around their original sticker price, they are not considered “sleepers”.

So forget the sleeper… the draft is about getting value for as many picks as possible.  Especially in the middle rounds where you are filling in your roster and somewhat handcuffed.

So, with that in mind, here is one player per position who seems to be a good value based on their average draft positions as posted on Yahoo! for the early drafts that have already taken place… and one player who you might avoid falling into the trap with everyone else:

Catcher

Best Value: Bengie Molina (SF)

Worst Value: Victor Martinez (CLE)

I have Bengie Molina as the 10th best catcher in the roto game. But his ADP in Yahoo leagues is 194. That’s still taking him much sooner than he is projected to be worth, but considering that the 194 ADP puts him as the probably 12th catcher drafted in your league. I’d have to say to keep your eye on him.

V-Mart on the other hand, may be the best catcher this year. But does that make him a second round pick? I certainly hope not. His projected roto rank puts him at 57th.

Overall though, no catcher projects to be a “value”, and I’m half tempted this season to actually go into the season sans backstop and see how it works out.

First Base

Best Value - Adrian Gonzalez (SD)

Worst Value - Jason Giambi (NYY)

Really, first base is one of the few positions where players get taken at about the right places. That being said, Adrian Gonzalez is projected at 74th in roto rank and is being taken with the 92nd pick on average. Thats a round and a half for you to grab Gonzalez who, at 26, is a breakout candidate.

Do I have to really explain Giambi? Man, I bet Yankee fans are going to be overjoyed when that mistake of a contract runs out.

Second Base

Best Value: Luis Castillo (NYM)

Co-Best Value: Placido Polanco (DET)

Worst Value: Brian Roberts (BAL) 

Luis Castillo is a great player for potentially 20+ steals and a lot of runs.  Castillo is on the Mets now, and the Mets have had no trouble in the past giving guys the green light on the basepaths.  For example, last year Castillo stole 9 bases in 85 games for the Twins.  Compare that with 10 bases in 50 games with the Mets.  Now, don’t draft Castillo, as his projected rank isn’t that high.  But if you find yourself without any SB threats at the end of your draft, Castillo is only going in about 2/3 of the drafts… so whether you draft him or not he still might be there for you when you need him.

Polanco on the other hand is being drafted, and being taken about 16 picks later than he should be taken, which is at 146.

Brian Roberts is being taken as the #4 2B in drafts… as he should be.  Problem as I see it is that he is being taken in the first three rounds and projected to have round five value.  2B is actually somewhat deep this year with guys like Kendrick, Weeks, and Kelly Johnson so I think that it might be better to wait and let the other guys grab the top 4 2B unless one falls in your lap.

Shortstop

Best Value - Michael Young (TEX)

Worst Value - Rafael Furcal (LAD)

Remember Michael Young?  Yes, Young is actually one of the few shortstops who isn’t being drafted too early in the 7th round.  I have him at 77th and he is being taken with the 81st pick.

Rafael Furcal screws me sideways every year.  Maybe this is personal, and maybe it’s because his ADP 0f 75 looks to be over 30 picks too soon.  No doubt in my mind this happens because of the epidemic of fantasy managers reaching too soon to get guys who can steal bases.  But Furcal is only going to get you 25 bags this year… same as Luis Castillo… same as Erik Aybar (ADP 386).

Third Base

Best Value - Ryan Zimmerman (WAS)

Worst Value - Chone Figgins (LAA)

Ryan Zimmerman, is 23 years old.   23 years old and playing in his 3rd season of major league baseball.  So if he had an off year last year… you’ll have to forgive him.  Zimm already put up a season with 10 SB, 20HR and 100RBI.  So what do you think is going to happen when he “breaks out”?  Considering that he is projected to get you 7SB, 25HR, and 100RBI, I think you can see why he has good value at the 100th pick in the draft; I think he should go 84th.

Chone Figgins I think is the same old song and dance: reaching for steals.  Again, if you plan accordingly and grab 6-7 players who steal about 10 bags a year you don’t need guys like Figgins… because with guys like Figgins, when they get hurt, what happens to your SB stats?  Yea, they fall off the face of the Earth.  Figgins is currently going 47th… should be going 64th.  Don’t reach for a guy who already has his replacement lined up (Brandon Wood).  You know Figgins is going to pull something at some point this year… the Halos will call up Wood.  If he rakes, what happens to Figgins?

Outfield

Best Value - Nick Markakis (BAL)

Worst Value - Curtis Granderson (DET)

This time, let’s start with the worst value: Granderson.  Call me skeptical, but I worry about a guy who jumped .040 in BA and hit 23 triples.  He will have support this year… that’s for sure.  So will they let Granderson be as risky on the basepaths?  Look, there’s just too many things that could go wrong here, so I think he should be drafted closer to his projected value of 41 than where he is currently going (31).  If you wind up with the 30th/31st pick and need an outfielder… try Alex Rios instead, who is projected at 30 and being drafted at 36.

So that makes Markakis the best value in my mind.  Here is a guy who is only 24, he walks, hits for power, and steals a decent amount of bases.  He’s going to help you in every category, and while projected at 42, you should take him before the 61st pick… which is where he is going.

Starting Pitchers

Best Value - Scott Kazmir (TB)

Co-Best Value - CC Sabathia (CLE)

Worst Value -  Francisco Liriano (MIN)

I don’t know why Kazmir is down at the 79th pick when I have him at 54… that’s 2 whole rounds of people missing out on this one.  Sabathia is not quite as much of a conundrum as I know that a great deal of fantasy managers buy into the LIMA plan of buying pitchers later rather than sooner.  Only problem, in my mind, with that plan is that pitching is half the game, and it only works if you are the only one abiding by the plan.   So CC is being drafted with the 42nd pick… I have him at 29th.  So if I can get my #4 SP in the 3rd round, I see that as a deal.

Okay, so Liriano.  Here is the big debate of the year.  Will he - or can he - regain his top form?  If so, he is one of the 5 best starters in the majors and a great pickup at 110.  If he takes that one year to recover though - as is common with pitchers who get TJ - then he might perform closer to his projected level of  133.  Either way, you’ve got to treat this guy carefully because, yes, if he throws gas you are the most brilliant man alive for taking him in the 9th round.  But if he falters - possibly with a lack of run support - then you just threw away a pick that could have been used a little better with Ben Sheets, James Shields, Yovani Gallardo, and Rich Hill all on the board.  This all goes back to the idea where, they aren’t sleepers or steals if you take them too soon…

Relief Pitchers

Best Value - Mariano Rivera (NYY)

Worst Value - Francisco Cordero (CIN)

First off, yes, my projection system has the top relief pitchers going about 20 picks before they go in the average Yahoo draft.  But here’s the thing: top closers make great trade bait,  every save is not equal (some are 2-3 strikeout appearances with low ERA, low WHIP while some are high ERA, high WHIP), and every year you are much more likely to find a guy like Yovani Gallardo or Hunter Pence on the waiver wire than a Jonathan Papelbon.  Also, what happens when you take the first relief pitcher in the draft?  The second?  Yea, every manager gets thrown completely off their game and closers start going faster than liquor at the Lohan household.  All that being said, I’ll address value here by the position order, not necessarily ADP.  So whenever your league goes into a closer frenzy, you’ll know when to jump in.

When it comes to Rivera, I think you need to give this guy the benefit of the doubt.  Last year he was working with a sub-par bullpen and rotation, and posted his only ERA greater than 3.00 since his rookie year in 1995.  Not only that, his WHIP of 1.12 was his worst since 1997 and was the same or better than Trevor Hoffman, Francisco Rodriguez, and Billy Wagner.  Add in the fact that his post all-star break ERA and WHIP were 2.52 and 1.09, there’s no reason why this guy should be the 9th or 10th closer drafted.  Honestly, I think this guy can be the #4 closer in the game this year…. but with ADP factored in, let’s say you shouldn’t wait too much longer if 5 closers have already been taken.

How many save opps you think Francisco Cordero is even going to get with the Reds this year?  Overall, the entire Reds team was 26th last year in total saves, so we can’t expect Coredero to even get that many opportunities, and last year he converted 86% of his save opps.  Basically, right now people are taking him as the #8 closer… wait for the second round of closers to take this guy as I don’t like his chances for many saves with Cinci’s rotation.

That’s it folks.  If you have questions about specific players, feel free to ask.  Right now I’m signed up to draft using my projections in a Yahoo! PLUS league (only way I could guarantee quality opponents) in the next week or two.  Once I do, I’ll let you know how the system worked out so you can make your own judgments about the kind of team I put together using it.

My ADP adjusted roto rankings can be seen here 

Wow… when they say nighttime cold medicine… they really mean nighttime. Maybe downing half a bottle of NyQuil before school was not such a great idea. On the way here I counted three purple elephants… when normally I only see one… maybe two. Probably going to be a weird day.

Well, so last night in a cold-medicine induced haze, I thought I saw that the Cougs put up 70 points on the Beavers. Still not quite certain what, or how… all I know is that I still think that Taylor Rochestie is one of the most underrated players in the Pac-10. Plain and simple: he is the man. Don’t get me wrong, D-Low is still the leader on this team, and Kyle Weaver the spark that makes things work, but ever since I saw him play against Stanford last year, my man-crush on Rochestie has grown stronger by the week as he continually comes through in clutch situations.

That being said, let’s move on and take a look at what’s coming up.

Overall

From my perspective, the Cougs have 2 must-win games remaining on their schedule… but of course it would behoove them to win the rest anyway. So far, they Cougs have 5 losses in Pac-10 play, but 3 of those losses were to teams ranked in the top 15 when the games took place (5th ranked UCLA and then 14th ranked Stanford). So to me, the two must-win games are against Cal and Arizona - the two ‘bad’ losses the team has had. I think as long as they split the season series with each team, they end up doing okay. Other than those two teams, I think the Cougs can lose two more games and be “okay” going into the Pac-10 tourney. Of course finishing out with all W’s would be a little nicer… but maybe not completely necessary for now.

Duck Tales

I still have a hard time taking any team seriously with Donald Duck as a mascot… but that’s another post. Saturday the Cougs go into one of the more difficult places to play a game of basketball and not only that, the Ducks aren’t exactly as bad as their 6-6 Pac-10 record might suggest. At home, Oregon has beaten three teams ranked at the time of the game - K-State, Arizona, and Stanford. As a matter of fact, 7 of their 9 losses this year were on the road, meaning that this Duck team is a completely different team at home.

Right now, Vegas doesn’t have a line on the game, but still, Oregon is 13-5-2 against the spread in their last 20 home games, meaning that even if they don’t win the game, there is a damn good possibility that this is going to be a very close game.

For the Cougs, it looks like 70-55 is the magic score. Wazzu has dropped all 5 of their losses when allowing 55 or more points in conference play, and they have only lost one game when scoring at least 70. Oregon on the other hand, is 0-4 when scoring less than 70 points in a Pac-10 game (including a 60-69 loss in Pullman), but they have never failed to score 70 points in a home game.

The other concern is that in the last 4 seasons, Oregon has not dropped a home game to Wazzu… at all, and the average score between the two teams in their last four head-to-head match ups has been Oregon 67-WSU 64. In Eugene, the average over the past four seasons has been Oregon 65- WSU 52.

So basically, I think that this is going to be a close game, with at most 6 points separating the victors from the losers. Considering all the stats, I really should be leaning towards a loss tomorrow, and maybe this is the NyQuil talking, or my man-crush on Rochestie, but I think Taylor comes through in the clutch again for the Cougs this weekend.

WSU 68
Oregon 65

Gotten a few people more than a bit overwhelmed by the differences between the ranks purely done by percentages of stats in the 5 roto categories.  Seems that one thing that people might be forgetting is that every stat counts, so the more balanced someone is over the 5 categories, the better they are going to be for your team.

Well, so what I did was factor ADP into my rankings.  The theory behind that is that my rankings were completely formula based towards ranking players in their order of individual roto contributions, not overall stats or positions.  So, for example, catchers seem to be absuloutely pitiful in roto when you look at the stats.  So the argument I’ve been presented is that since you need all positions, that I need to weight by position.  My contention is that the players you will be able to draft by passing up guys like Mauer and Martin, are going to be way more valuable to your team than even the elite catchers.  You’re better off waiting to grab someone line Bengie Molina at the end of the draft.

Well, so if it’s strategy you want, it’s strategy that you will get.  So here is what you get when you take the 100% math based ranks and average them with ADP.  It’s much more aligned to what you are used to looking at, and let me remind you, that although this method is completely untested, isn’t the whole point to take a Moneyball approach to drafting and see if you can’t figure out a way of doing things that helps to place more accurate value on players?  That’s fine if you want to go with the standard Yahoo! rankings, but not me.  Nope, I think that in order to be successful, you need a unique - really emphasizing the unique here people - strategy in order to win.  Things like the LIMA plan are great… uless you’ve got another manager or two in the same draft trying the same thing.  If that happens, you just fall into the trap again of targeting players and taking them before even you think they should go.

So in my humble - and typically incorrect opinion - if you want to win, you have to take risks.  Well, this is a big risk… unless of course it works and then I’ll be rich.

Adjusted Ranks (Top 275)

1. Álex Rodríguez
2. Albert Pujols
3. David Wright
4. Hanley Ramírez
5. Matt Holliday
6. Miguel Cabrera
7. José Reyes
8. Chase Utley
9. Ryan Howard
10. Johan Santana
11. Jimmy Rollins
12. David Ortiz
13. Prince Fielder
14. Jake Peavy
15. Ryan Braun
16. Vladimir Guerrero
17. Grady Sizemore
18. Carl Crawford
19. Alfonso Soriano
20. Carlos Lee
21. Mark Teixeira
22. Carlos Beltrán
23. Lance Berkman
24. Jonathan Papelbon
25. Magglio Ordóñez
26. Brandon Webb
27. Ichiro Suzuki
28. J.J. Putz
29. C.C. Sabathia
30. Álex Ríos
31. Josh Beckett
32. Brandon Phillips
33. B.J. Upton
34. Erik Bedard
35. Joe Nathan
36. Aramis Ramírez
37. Justin Morneau
38. John Lackey
39. Derrek Lee
40. Derek Jeter
41. Curtis Granderson
42. Nick Markakis
43. Travis Hafner
44. Manny Ramírez
45. Cole Hamels
46. Francisco Rodríguez
47. Dan Haren
48. Adam Dunn
49. Garrett Atkins
50. Justin Verlander
51. Chipper Jones
52. Bobby Abreu
53. Takashi Saito
54. Scott Kazmir
55. Torii Hunter
56. Robinson Canó
57. Víctor Martínez
58. Aaron Harang
59. Carlos Peña
60. Mariano Rivera
61. Miguel Tejada
62. Brian Roberts
63. Troy Tulowitzki
64. Chone Figgins
65. Russell Martin
66. Carlos Zambrano
67. Carlos Guillén
68. Eric Byrnes
69. Roy Oswalt
70. Paul Konerko
71. Félix Hernández
72. John Smoltz
73. Hunter Pence
74. Adrián González
75. Corey Hart
76. Chris Young
77. Michael Young
78. Roy Halladay
79. Billy Wagner
80. Chris Young
81. José Valverde
82. Vernon Wells
83. Javier Vázquez
84. Ryan Zimmerman
85. Bobby Jenks
86. Daisuke Matsuzaka
87. Ian Kinsler
88. Hideki Matsui
89. Jason Bay
90. Brad Hawpe
91. Huston Street
92. Jeff Francoeur
93. Kelvim Escobar
94. Fausto Carmona
95. Andruw Jones
96. Joe Mauer
97. James Shields
98. Francisco Cordero
99. Nick Swisher
100. Dan Uggla
101. Adrián Béltre
102. Rafael Soriano
103. Gary Sheffield
104. Todd Helton
105. Delmon Young
106. Brett Myers
107. Matt Cain
108. Rich Hill
109. Rafael Furcal
110. Tim Lincecum
111. Jim Thome
112. Trevor Hoffman
113. Juan Pierre
114. Jermaine Dye
115. Yovani Gallardo
116. Brian McCann
117. Mike Lowell
118. Rickie Weeks
119. Ben Sheets
120. Brad Lidge
121. A.J. Burnett
122. Manny Corpas
123. Howie Kendrick
124. Brad Penny
125. Johnny Damon
126. John Maine
127. Matt Capps
128. Raúl Ibañez
129. Édgar Rentería
130. Jorge Posada
131. Ted Lilly
132. Shane Victorino
133. Francisco Liriano
134. Jered Weaver
135. Matt Kemp
136. Joakim Soria
137. Orlando Cabrera
138. Jason Isringhausen
139. Chad Billingsley
140. Pat Burrell
141. Aaron Rowand
142. Ken Griffey Jr.
143. Alex Gordon
144. Chad Cordero
145. Pedro Martínez
146. Plácido Polanco
147. Carlos Delgado
148. Ian Snell
149. James Loney
150. Kevin Youkilis
151. Tim Hudson
152. Michael Cuddyer
153. Chien-Ming Wang
154. Jeremy Bonderman
155. Joba Chamberlain
156. Jeremy Hermida
157. Dustin Pedroia
158. Jeff Francis
159. Kelly Johnson
160. Kosuke Fukudome
161. J.J. Hardy
162. Josh Fields
163. Adam Wainwright
164. Derek Lowe
165. Josh Willingham
166. Jacoby Ellsbury
167. Joe Blanton
168. Edwin Encarnación
169. Josh Hamilton
170. Jonathan Broxton
171. Ryan Garko
172. Troy Percival
173. Jhonny Peralta
174. Jeff Kent
175. Khalil Greene
176. Oliver Pérez
177. Hank Blalock
178. Dustin McGowan
179. Bronson Arroyo
180. Phil Hughes
181. Carlos Mármol
182. Adam LaRoche
183. Kenji Johjima
184. Willy Taveras
185. José Guillén
186. B.J. Ryan
187. Andy Pettitte
188. J.D. Drew
189. Orlando Hudson
190. Frank Thomas
191. Clay Buchholz
192. Dontrelle Willis
193. Gary Matthews Jr.
194. Troy Glaus
195. Rafael Betancourt
196. Tom Gorzelanny
197. Eric Gagne
198. Kevin Gregg
199. Stephen Drew
200. Barry Zito
201. Melky Cabrera
202. Joey Votto
203. Gil Meche
204. Aaron Hill
205. Zack Greinke
206. Rich Harden
207. Joe Borowski
208. Julio Lugo
209. Felipe López
210. Ty Wigginton
211. Kevin Kouzmanoff
212. Tony Peña
213. Jeremy Accardo
214. Randy Johnson
215. Brian Wilson
216. Mark Buehrle
217. Freddy Sánchez
218. Mike Cameron
219. Todd Jones
220. Moisés Alou
221. Kevin Slowey
222. Billy Butler
223. Evan Longoria
224. Shaun Marcum
225. Conor Jackson
226. Bob Howry
227. Yunel Escobar
228. Garret Anderson
229. Bill Hall
230. Richie Sexson
231. Mark Teahen
232. Matt Garza
233. Greg Maddux
234. Austin Kearns
235. Rick Ankiel
236. Jarrod Saltalamacchia
237. Iván Rodríguez
238. Geovany Soto
239. Hiroki Kuroda
240. Bengie Molina
241. Justin Upton
242. Coco Crisp
243. Chris Duncan
244. Akinori Iwamura
245. C.J. Wilson
246. Casey Kotchman
247. Michael Bourn
248. Jack Cust
249. Kazuo Matsui
250. Rocco Baldelli
251. Jason Giambi
252. David DeJesús
253. Mark Ellis
254. Mark Reynolds
255. Kerry Wood
256. Lastings Milledge
257. Ubaldo Jiménez
258. Aubrey Huff
259. Jon Garland
260. Casey Blake
261. Lyle Overbay
262. Jason Varitek
263. Jeremy Guthrie
264. A.J. Pierzynski
265. Ramón Hernández
266. Randy Winn
267. Dave Bush
268. Chris Carpenter
269. Scott Baker
270. Wily Mo Peña
271. Milton Bradley
272. Chuck James
273. Ryan Theriot
274. Eric Chávez
275. Adam Jones

Realistically, this is going to be a better approach for me anyway because then I am much less likely to be forced into drafting players multiple rounds before my counterparts might.   So this - or something very close to it - will be the final rankings I will test out in a randomly assigned competitive roto league this year.

Fresh off the press, just got finished.

Before I unveil the ranks, let me first tell you how I put them together. Inevitably, someone is going to tell me that I am an idiot. It’s going to happen.

Math Has A Purpose?

Yes, folks, math can be used in the real world…er, well, fantasy world. What I did for these rankings was I took the projections from 5 different sources for the 2008 season, and gave each player a score for each of the 5 projection systems. Finally, I put together a composite score and ranked the players based on that composite.

Overall, the system makes sense (to me). Roto leagues are based on awarding teams points based on their performance in each stat category. Traditional roto does this by using the totals; I varied slightly by using the percentage of the highest amount. So let’s say Jose Reyes is projected to steal 68 bases - he gets a 1 in the SB category and everyone else gets a score equivalent to their percentage of meeting Jose’s 68 SB. Make sense?

Anyone familiar with the RC/27 stat might get what I’m doing. The RC/27 stat is basically how many runs a player would score if the entire team was composed of just them. Well, what I did was find a way to score players as if they were their own roto fantasy team, and see how well they would do against every other player. So in the end, this is a roto ranking system completely based off of the roto scoring system.

At no time did I factor in strategy, or opinion. The projections aren’t mine, so what I’m trying to get across is that these rankings might be the most honest and comprehensive you’ll find on the internet.

Surprises

The biggest surprise is Hanely Ramirez 6th and Jose Reyes 14th - yes, that’s Jose Reyes in the 2nd round. This would be surprising, but a while back I did some statistical analysis on the stolen base category and found out that contrary to popular belief, the stolen base category has the lowest correlation with final league standing. So the moral of the story to me is to target players like Ryan Braun who will hit for power and get you 10-15 stolen bases rather than grab someone early who’s main claim to fame is the art of the steal.

Rankings

Rank First Last
1 Alex Rodriguez
2 Albert Pujols
3 Matt Holliday
4 David Wright
5 Johan Santana
6 Hanley Ramirez
7 Miguel Cabrera
8 David Ortiz
9 Jake Peavy
10 Ryan Howard
11 J.J. Putz
12 Chase Utley
13 Jonathan Papelbon
14 Jose Reyes
15 Jimmy Rollins
16 Ryan Braun
17 Vladimir Guerrero
18 Prince Fielder
19 Takashi Saito
20 Joe Nathan
21 Grady Sizemore
22 C.C. Sabathia
23 Brandon Webb
24 Carl Crawford
25 Carlos Lee
26 Alfonso Soriano
27 Mark Teixeira
28 Magglio Ordonez
29 Josh Beckett
30 Lance Berkman
31 John Lackey
32 Carlos Beltran
33 Mariano Rivera
34 Erik Bedard
35 Dan Haren
36 Cole Hamels
37 Francisco Rodriguez
38 Chipper Jones
39 Justin Verlander
40 Nick Markakis
41 Derrek Lee
42 Alex Rios
43 Scott Kazmir
44 Ichiro Suzuki
45 Aaron Harang
46 Aramis Ramirez
47 Garrett Atkins
48 Justin Morneau
49 Travis Hafner
50 BJ Upton
51 Brandon Phillips
52 Huston Street
53 Derek Jeter
54 Adam Dunn
55 Robinson Cano
56 Rafael Soriano
57 Torii Hunter
58 Manny Ramirez
59 Curt Granderson
60 Miguel Tejada
61 John Smoltz
62 Felix Hernandez
63 Chris Young
64 Carlos Pena
65 Bobby Abreu
66 Billy Wagner
67 Carlos Zambrano
68 Javier Vazquez
69 Adrian Gonzalez
70 Roy Oswalt
71 Paul Konerko
72 Jose Valverde
73 Carlos Guillen
74 Daisuke Matsuzaka
75 Roy Halladay
76 Michael Young
77 Bobby Jenks
78 Eric Byrnes
79 Chone Figgins
80 Kelvim Escobar
81 James Shields
82 Corey Hart
83 Brian Roberts
84 Ryan Zimmerman
85 Troy Tulowitzki
86 Jeff Francoeur
87 Hunter Pence
88 Rafael Betancourt
89 Rich Hill
90 Vernon Wells
91 Victor Martinez
92 Fausto Carmona
93 Nick Swisher
94 Todd Helton
95 Jason Bay
96 Brad Hawpe
97 Hideki Matsui
98 Francisco Cordero
99 Russell Martin
100 Matt Cain
101 Matt Capps
102 Chris B Young
103 Joakim Soria
104 Andruw Jones
105 Brett Myers
106 Adrian Beltre
107 Tim Lincecum
108 Jered Weaver
109 Brad Lidge
110 Trevor Hoffman
111 Ian Kinsler
112 Delmon Young
113 Yovani Gallardo
114 John Maine
115 Dan Uggla
116 A.J. Burnett
117 Manny Corpas
118 Raul Ibanez
119 Jonathan Broxton
120 Mike Lowell
121 Ted Lilly
122 Gary Sheffield
123 Pedro Martinez
124 Jermaine Dye
125 Jim Thome
126 Chad Billingsley
127 Francisco Liriano
128 Jason Isringhausen
129 Placido Polanco
130 Brad Penny
131 Johnny Damon
132 Juan Pierre
133 Bob Howry
134 Matt Kemp
135 Ben Sheets
136 Ken Griffey
137 Rafael Furcal
138 Ian Snell
139 Pat Burrell
140 Kosuke Fukudome
141 Joe Mauer
142 Jeremy Bonderman
143 Rickie Weeks
144 Kevin Youkilis
145 Chad Cordero
146 Troy Percival
147 Tim Hudson
148 Carlos Delgado
149 Orlando Cabrera
150 Howie Kendrick
151 Derek Lowe
152 Michael Cuddyer
153 Ryan Garko
154 Joe Blanton
155 Joba Chamberlain
156 Edgar Renteria
157 Aaron Rowand
158 James Loney
159 Jeff Francis
160 Carlos Marmol
161 Alex Gordon
162 Josh Willingham
163 Kelly Johnson
164 Jeremy Hermida
165 Adam Wainwright
166 Dustin Pedroia
167 Chien-Ming Wang
168 Shane Victorino
169 Aaron Hill
170 Edwin Encarnacion
171 Josh Hamilton
172 Josh Fields
173 Jorge Posada
174 Jose Guillen
175 Frank Thomas
176 Bronson Arroyo
177 Freddy Sanchez
178 Oliver Perez
179 JD Drew
180 Hank Blalock
181 Brian Mccann
182 Jhonny Peralta
183 B.J. Ryan
184 Adam Laroche
185 Billy Butler
186 Jeremy Accardo
187 Jacoby Ellsbury
188 JJ Hardy
189 Joey Votto
190 Andy Pettitte
191 Clay Buchholz
192 Khalil Greene
193 Orlando Hudson
194 Gary Matthews
195 Barry Bonds
196 Jeff Kent
197 Melky Cabrera
198 Mark Teahen
199 Tom Gorzelanny
200 Gil Meche
201 Curt Schilling
202 Troy Glaus
203 Hiroki Kuroda
204 Ty Wigginton
205 Tony Pena
206 Barry Zito
207 Randy Johnson
208 Dustin McGowan
209 Phil Hughes
210 Willy Taveras
211 Randy Winn
212 Zack Greinke
213 Aubrey Huff
214 Mark Buehrle
215 Moises Alou
216 Greg Maddux
217 Mike Cameron
218 Lyle Overbay
219 Kevin Kouzmanoff
220 Rick Ankiel
221 Bill Hall
222 Austin Kearns
223 Kevin Gregg
224 David Dejesus
225 Felipe Lopez
226 Mark Ellis
227 Garret Anderson
228 Eric Gagne
229 Casey Kotchman
230 Chris Duncan
231 Conor Jackson
232 Coco Crisp
233 Dontrelle Willis
234 Shaun Marcum
235 Luis Castillo
236 Kevin Slowey
237 Julio Lugo
238 Rich Harden
239 David Bush
240 Milton Bradley
241 Stephen Drew
242 Corey Patterson
243 C.J. Wilson
244 Ervin Santana
245 Melvin Mora
246 Brian Wilson
247 Richie Sexson
248 Jamie Walker
249 Chuck James
250 Kerry Wood
251 Nate Robertson
252 Xavier Nady
253 Luke Scott
254 Jon Garland
255 Jason Giambi
256 Adam Lind
257 Mark Reynolds
258 Casey Blake
259 Joe Crede
260 Akinori Iwamura
261 Jack Cust
262 Daniel Cabrera
263 Chris Carpenter
264 Daric Barton
265 Wandy Rodriguez
266 Geoff Jenkins
267 Kenji Johjima
268 Mike Jacobs
269 Adam Jones
270 Scott Baker
271 Evan Longoria
272 Yuni Betancourt
273 Yunel Escobar
274 Matt Garza
275 Matt Diaz
276 Mike Mussina
277 Lastin Milledge
278 Joe Borowski
279 Orlando Hernandez
280 Kenny Lofton
281 Eric Chavez
282 Micah Owings
283 Jeremy Guthrie
284 Ryan Theriot
285 Jose Lopez
286 Justin Upton
287 Jason Bartlett
288 Mark Derosa
289 Scott Rolen
290 Justin Germano
291 Ryan Church
292 Brian Giles
293 Wily Mo Pena
294 Paul Byrd
295 Jason Kubel
296 Andy Sonnanstine
297 Chris Capuano
298 Randy Wolf
299 Jarrod Washburn
300 Jacque Jones
301 Asdrubal Cabrera
302 Felix Pie
303 Doug Davis
304 Dmitri Young
305 Chad Tracy
306 Tim Wakefield
307 Nick Johnson
308 Marlon Byrd
309 Jose Bautista
310 Nate Mclouth
311 Todd Jones
312 Michael Bourn
313 Tadahito Iguchi
314 Brian Bannister
315 Kevin Millwood
316 Travis Buck
317 Frank Gutierrez
318 Boof Bonser
319 Andre Ethier
320 Jake Westbrook
321 Ray Durham
322 Shawn Hill
323 Scott Olsen
324 Rocco Baldelli
325 Bengie Molina
326 Steve Pearce
327 Joel Pineiro
328 Miguel Bautista
329 Jason Schmidt
330 Ronnie Belliard
331 Jason Bergmann
332 Carlos Quentin
333 Pedro Feliz
334 Noah Lowry
335 Jamie Moyer
336 Carlos Silva
337 Andy Laroche
338 Tom Glavine
339 Jack Wilson
340 John Danks
341 Maicer Izturis
342 Jose Contreras
343 Chad Gaudin
344 Ben Broussard
345 Braden Looper
346 Ryan Freel
347 Geovany Soto
348 Jason Marquis
349 Ramon Hernandez
350 Ian Kennedy
351 Shawn Green
352 Bartolo Colon
353 Ubaldo Jimenez
354 Jonny Gomes
355 Nomar Garciaparra
356 Cliff Floyd
357 Mark Grudzielanek
358 Matt Murton
359 Paul Maholm
360 Aj Pierzynski
361 Ivan Rodriguez
362 Brendan Harris
363 Jon Lester
364 Anthony Reyes
365 Juan Rivera
366 David Eckstein
367 Joe Saunders
368 Matt Stairs
369 Kevin Millar
370 Kazuo Matsui
371 Carlos Gomez
372 Dave Roberts
373 Jason Varitek
374 Jeff Suppan
375 Jim Edmonds
376 Jarrod Saltalamacchia
377 Matt Morris
378 Jayson Werth
379 Kyle Lohse
380 Kyle Kendrick
381 Danny Richar
382 Ronny Paulino
383 Scott Hairston
384 Cameron Maybin
385 Aaron Cook
386 Jason Hirsh
387 Jair Jurrjens
388 Craig Monroe
389 Ross Gload
390 Kevin Mench
391 Jesse Litsch
392 Dan Johnson
393 Homer Bailey
394 Carlos Ruiz
395 Rajai Davis
396 Brandon Inge
397 Erik Aybar
398 Joey Gathright
399 Scott Podsednik
400 Brad Wilkerson
401 Cody Ross
402 JR Towles
403 Josh Anderson
404 Alex Gonzalez
405 Manny Parra
406 Ian Stewart
407 Paul Loduca
408 Reggie Willits
409 Colby Rasmus
410 Matt Belise
411 Ben Francisco
412 Jonathan Sanchez
413 Jay Payton
414 Sergio Mitre
415 Cliff Lee
416 Alexi Casilla
417 Bobby Crosby
418 Fred Lewis
419 Franklin Morales
420 Reed Johnson
421 Kurt Suzuki
422 Juan Uribe
423 Ryan Doumit
424 Matt Antonelli
425 Johnny Estrada
426 Livan Hernandez
427 Jay Bruce
428 Marcus Giles
429 Brandon Morrow
430 Andrew Miller
431 Ryan Dempster
432 Matt Chico
433 Brandon McCarthy
434 John Buck
435 Omar Vizquel
436 Michael Barrett
437 Josh Bard
438 Jose Castillo
439 Mark Loretta
440 Chris Snyder
441 Ryan Raburn
442 Brendan Ryan
443 Edinson Volquez
444 Kevin Frandsen
445 Gabe Gross
446 David Dellucci
447 Adam Loewen
448 Jason Kendall
449 Chris Burke
450 Vicente Padilla
451 Elijah Dukes
452 Dioner Navarro
453 Tony Pena
454 Kason Gabbard
455 Chris Shelton
456 Brandon Wood
457 Marco Scutaro
458 Zach Duke
459 Brian Schneider
460 Sammy Sosa
461 Adam Eaton
462 Edwin Jackson
463 Mike Pelfrey
464 Gregg Zaun
465 Yorvit Torrealba
466 Yadier Molina
467 Eugenio Velez
468 David Ross
469 Scott Moore
470 Gavin Floyd
471 Miguel Montero
472 Cristian Guzman
473 Chris Iannetta
474 Jo-Jo Reyes
475 Miguel Olivo
476 Nick Punto
477 Jesus Flores
478 Kyle Davies
479 Cesar Izturis
480 Jeff Mathis

But do they work?

Yea, can’t tell you that. This is my first year using this method to rank players, and really I think they came out quite well. To me, these rankings are probably the best ones out there if you are trying to get players at good value. For example, Matt Holliday looks to be - statistically speaking - the 3rd most valuable player in roto this year, but is ranked 7th by Yahoo!. This means that if you have the 5th or 6th pick, well, grab Matt one or two picks earlier than he is rated and you’ll likely get yourself a bargain.

Testing in the field

So what I’m going to do this year is that I will join one of Yahoo!’s competitive roto leagues and force myself to follow these ranks without any deviations. Can’t have a better testing method, a randomly selected public leage where my opponents have no prior info about my drafting strategy. Then, I’ll let you know how the draft goes, and a few updates to see if this is worth repeating.

Coming soon

Later this week/weekend I’ll grab some average draft position stats (ADP) and find the biggest steals in the drafts, as well as the players to avoid taking too soon.

… will be coming shortly.  I have all the projections I am planning to use at this point but it’s been time consuming to compile them all into one database.

Hopefully I’ll be done this weekend, at which time I can start posting again about nut shots and absurdity.