The g***** mistake here is not that f***** John McLaren went on a tirade… the f***** mistake was waiting this g***** long. I’m *****d off at all the managers who take too g***** long to get their a***s up there and let these overpaid f**** that they can’t half-a** it every night.

Wait, what am I talking about… I’m an A’s fan… lose every g***** night… please. John… don’t you think you’re being a bit harsh? Take it easy on ‘em… they’re just adults being paid millions of dollars to play a game. Let’s not get too carried away.

Good talk.

So for Cook, he is pitching much better in one of the best hitter’s parks than elsewhere. What gives? I just can’t figure this one out… the law of averages would suggest that since Colorado batters are hitting thirteen points higher at home than on the road… then opposing hitters should be doing similarly? But they aren’t… Colorado pitchers, as an entire staff, have a lower ERA/WHIP/BAA line at home of 4.74/1.41/.274; compare that to the road line of 5.18/1.59/.275. I’d say that this is the humidor at work… but it still doesn’t explain why the Rocks hitters are not subject to the same laws of physics as their opponents…

May 29 3B Carlos Guillen is expected to return to Detroit’s lineup Friday for the start of a weekend series in Seattle. Guillen missed Wednesday’s game and Detroit was off Thursday. “I’m going to stand him for two days,” Leyland said in deference to Guillen’s hemorrhoid condition. “I can use him as a hitter, but we need to let that quiet down. So with a day off, I chose this time.”

This makes me long for the NFL season and Bill Belichick’s notably vague and often misleading reports. It would be funny though if this was his skipper’s way of covering up a more embarrassing story… espeically when reporting back to the local papers:

“He can hardly move — he’s got hemorrhoids so bad,” Tigers manager Jim Leyland said Tuesday. “He’s been playing with hemorrhoids that probably need to be lanced. He probably shouldn’t have been out there (third base on Monday).” Leyland said the hemorrhoids have been bothering Guillen for about four or five days, but they have gotten worse in the last few days. “He could hardly walk (Monday night),” Leyland said.

True, Hicks did bargain down to third-degree credit-card theft and attempted third-degree assault instead of the felonies, so on the record it looks a bit better than him being a felon… but not great. But what gets me is that this “conduct council” (apparently new head coach Paul Wulff either doesn’t want to be accountable for this decision or learned his management skills from watching “Survivor“) only suspended the safety three games. That’s it; three games. Only three games after dragging the good name of WSU through the mud for the past several months. My question is, what punishment would this “conduct council” have recommended if I had been convicted of attempted third-degree assault of a WSU football player? Expulsion? Suspension for the entire fall semester at least.

And now it seems that even after being allowed to bargain down from being a felon, Hicks still hasn’t learned his lesson. Huh, wonder why. Maybe it’s because this decision by the “tribal council” (which again I love because it’s mob mentality at it’s finest: no one is accountable) wasn’t strong enough, didn’t send a strong enough signal to Hicks that it’s not just about him screwing up his own life: it’s about him degrading the reputation of the WSU football program, WSU student-athlete, and ultimately the reputation of WSU students like me. He also puts his teammates seasons’ at risk because, hell, can they really count on him to be there for them down the stretch… or will he be creating more problems?

All I’ve got to say is that I don’t care how creative of an offense Paul Wulff is brining to WSU (and although I’m certain that he is a good coach), if he doesn’t have the balls to send a message here and now, then who is really running this program? To me, this was his first test… and he failed it pretty miserably.  It’s his giant head up there that is the face of this program; so council or no council, this one’s on him.

[Editor’s note: the biggest shame in all of this though is that the fact that Grady Maxwell’s once promising career looks like it has ended due to injuries… and no one seems to care. They only care about when they can expect their felonious starting safety to be back on the field. Priorities folks. Football is great, and I love it, but there’s so much more going on here.]

Insanity Prevails

Okay, so the basis for my logic last time around was pretty slim, but it is spooky, and I must say, original. Like I said last time, the Florida Marlins won the Series exactly 10 years after expansion: this is year 10 for the Tampa Bay franchise. Less than 10 years after Disney made a movie using the Los Angeles Angels (Angles in the Outfield), the Angels won the Series in 2002. That same year, The Rookie was released, and by my logic, passed on the mojo to the Devil Rays. The logic also included some other pretty far-fetched similarities to World Series winners. A new one that I’ve noticed is that 2002 is the first year that the Angels used ‘Anaheim’ on their jerseys since 1965… hence a name change? Of course the Tampa Bay team dropped the unmentionable word Devil from their name in 2008. Also, the 2002 the Angels were predicted to finish second-to-last in the AL West… well, the Devil Rays were predicted to finish second-to-last in the AL East.

That’s probably enough hodge podge, so why don’t I actually try to show how this year is the year rather than rely completely on horoscopes and random connections to past winners…

Counter Argument: “The Devil Rays Do This Every Year”

True. The Tampa Bay franchise has typically been plagued by seasons of hot starts and slow finishes. So really, in order to prove that they are legit in 2008, I just need to show that they can actually sustain their hot start this time around. If they can keep this up, then there is no reason why they can’t be in the running for the 2008 Wild Card.

A Year Older, A Year Wiser

First off, age does make a difference; especially with pitching staffs. It makes a difference mainly because if your pitchers are too young, they don’t have the game experience or maturity to know what to do when things get sticky. Younger pitchers are also more likely to rely on a single pitch - typically their fastball - and try to strike everyone out. Even one more year of big league experience can really help a guy work out issues like that. For example, take a look at Edwin Jackson’s xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) from 2005 to 2008. Since having an xFIP of 6.53 in 2005, he has gone down each year to 5.50, 5.02, and 4.30 in 2008. Since this is a pitching stat that does not rely on fielding at all, that has to mean that Edwin is making better pitches and probably has learned a thing or two over the years.

In fact, this is Tampa’s oldest average pitching staff (average 28.0 years old) since the 1999-2000 seasons with an average of 29.3 years of age, but those staffs were headlined by guys like Bobby Witt, Wilson Alvarez, Steve Trachsel, and Doc Gooden… not Scott Kazmir and James Shields. So it is entirely plausible that Tampa Bay has enough experience to help maintain solid play throughout 2008 and avoid another letdown.

A Run Prevented Is Just As Good As A Run Scored

Right now, Tampa Bay is on pace to make a total of 78 errors during the 2008 season. That is significantly lower than the error totals of 117 and 116 in 2007 and 2006. Of these errors, in 2007 22 were made at second base (led by BJ Upton), 16 at third base (led by Akinoir Iwamura), 25 at shortstop (led by Brendan Harris), and 13 in the outfield (led by Delmon Young). So as you can tell from this list, none of the major violators of proper fielding are still with the team, or still at those positions.

In comparison, so far in 2008, the team has made 0 errors at 2B, 2 errors at third base, and 6 errors at shortstop. Although the 6 errors at SS projects out to 22 - roughly the same as in 2007 - there have been major signs of defensive improvement by the team, and in the cases of Iwamura and Upton, they are much better defenders at their new positions than at their “natural” positions. The end result? a fielding percentage of .987 - a number good enough to put them #1 in the AL East, #5 in all of baseball.

In terms of what that means to their pitching, the teams DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistic) is 109% of their ERA. Hence, their defense bails out their staff for about 1/3 of a run per game. If the team can keep up this defense - or even improve at SS since Jason Bartlett’s .594 OPS isn’t exactly making him irreplaceable in the lineup - then I’d have to think that Tampa has the ability to stay in the top 10 in team ERA, and give them a much better chance at hanging around in 2008 to make a run.

What They Are Lacking

The biggest problem last year was their bullpen, but I think that Troy Pervical was a good addition there. Also, you have converted starters like JP Howell and Dan Wheeler (who was a starter for the Rays back in the day) doing quite well, and even Trevor Miller has held his own (although if they want to win… they’ll have to do better than Trevor Miller). They still need a couple of arms in the bullpen to make up for when their starters begin to struggle or need rest.

I think they also lack a power-bat since Carlos Pena - surprise, surprise - hasn’t been able to match his career year of 2007 which was dramatically different than his career stats suggested he was capable of.

I think that they can address these issues in a few ways. One way is of course by trading. I think that one option that cannot be dismissed is using their #5 prospect Reid Brignac as a trading chip. Really, Brignac has okay power, and some guys like this carry much more value as prospects than they ever will as major leaguers. Using Brignac as a chip to get a relief pitcher might not be a bad idea, especially since the Rays have the #1 overall draft pick this year and are likely to grab high school shortstop Tim Beckham with the pick.

The other options are to pre-maturely call up their #2, #3, or #4 prospects David Price, Jake McGee or Wade Davis to fill out their bullpen. I’d have to cite how coming out of the pen seems to have helped to develop guys like Johan Santana and more recelntly Zack Greinke. Not only that, but Baseball America projects McGee to be a relief pitcher anyway… so might as well get things going in that direction.

As for first base… not a whole lot you can do besides wait it out. Pena had a terrible April last year before a .356 May… so there may be at least a .260 hitter in there somewhere waiting to come out and play.

Tampa Bay - Your 2008 AL Wild Card Team

In the end, maybe I’ve convinced you… maybe I haven’t. But I sure am glad that it’s at least a discussion… and I have to at least throw out the possibility that the sudden decrease in steroid use will favor the small-market clubs for a while as they have probably stockpiled the young hitters who traditionally would have been held back until they developed more power (Even Longoria, BJ Upton, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Daric Barton, etc). Now, the league is regressing back to where a good gap hitter seems to be the prototypical player… not your beefed up slugger. And as long as the league keeps regressing back to a time when pitching and hitting for average were key, I think the smaller clubs have more than a decent chance against the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, and other big market teams.

Earlier this year a friend and I were talking about the fact that Abercrombie wasn’t getting his due playing time, and couldn’t understand what was going on there. So in the absence of fact, I’m left to speculate that either Abercrombie and head coach Tony Bennett did not see eye to eye, or that for some reason or another Abercrombie’s playing style did not mesh with Bennett’s system. Because otherwise, I am left to assume that WSU’s Athletic Department was sick and tired of getting hits on the website from teenage girls looking for overpriced sweaters and pants made in sweat shops and hence pushed Thomas out the door.

Ron Wilson… Pack Your Crap and Get Out

So in my last Sharks post, I talked about the offseason changes that the Sharks needed to make this year. Firing Ron Wilson was certainly not one of them. In my mind, Wilson was given a team that severely lacked a marquee goal scorer, and did the proper thing of focusing on defense and limiting their opponents’ chances. So my previous focus was on the Sharks needing to find someone who they could count on to score 40+ goals a year.

What scares me about this move is that quite often, when coaching regimes change, they change into polar opposites. The Sharks played a stifling defense but suffered on offense. My fear is that they hire someone who wants to “open things up” and focus their game more on offense. Only problem with that to me is that both Los Angeles and Tampa Bay outscored the Sharks this year… and those two teams tied for the worst teams in the NHL this season.

Statistical Approach to 2008 Offseason

So since I didn’t see this coming, I figured I better take a step back and look at what was important to winning hockey games in 2007-2008. To do this, I took a look at most team stats available, and compared statistical correlation between that stat category, and team points (two points for a win, one for OLT). To explain, a correlation of 1.0 means that there is a direct linear relationship between a stat category and a correlation of 0 means that stat has nothing to do with team points in the big picture. The results are as follows:

One thing that surprised me was the complete lack of correlation between faceoff percentage and team points. So many analysts stress the importance of winning faceoffs… and really it has nothing to do with winning and losing hockey games in the big picture (certainly there are specific games that have come down to a key faceoff win… but overall it just doesn’t matter). The other one is shots on goal. One might think that more shots on goal leads to more goals and hence, more wins. Maybe not.

Obviously, what is important is keeping the puck out of your own net, scoring on the power play, and limiting your opponent’s scoring chances; under the guidance of Ron Wilson, the Sharks finished in the top five for all three of these stat categories. So then what went wrong? Well, the team finsihed in the top five for all three categories in the regular season. In the playoffs, the Sharks currently sit second in the average number of shots allowed and fourth in goals against average. So nothing wrong there, with the team or its coaching. The problem, was being 12th out of 16 teams in the average number of power play goals per game, and hey, 12th in power play conversion percentage. Strangely enough, when I go back to last year’s playoffs, the Sharks were 13th in PP%, and wow, 10th the year before that.

So statistically, the downfall of the Sharks can really be pinpointed down to a lack of power play goals in the playoffs.

So What Does It All Mean?

To me, it means that Sharks fans should be wary of Ron Wilson’s firing. Like I said before, in pro sports when a lack of offense - in this case power play goals - is suspected to be the downfall of the team, a polar opposite coach is often hired who forgets defense in the name of more offense. If this were to happen, it would mean some serious problems for the Sharks who, in my opinion, already have the problem of wearing some seriously hideous unis.

It also means that my original analysis may have been spot on - that the Sharks just need a marquee goal scorer. The fact that their leading scorer put fewer than 30 pucks in the back of the net to me means that there is no “go to guy” who steps up in the playoffs. Also, Joe Thornton is one of the elite passers in the game… and shouldn’t be relied upon to score our goals.

The Sharks Are Just Being Cheap

So, in the end, Ron Wilson’s firing to me is a smokescreen for failure to develop a marquee scorer from within (i.e. have not drafted well), and also aren’t willing to spend the money to bring a Stanley Cup to the Bay Area. The fact of the matter is, despite increasing payroll by $10 million in the past three seasons (the Sharks actually lowered payroll by 5% this year) the Sharks have the 20th highest payroll in all of hockey. I think that the fans, who helped the team average 99.5% capacity deserve at least a payroll/ financial commitment that reflects their support for the team.

Folks, in the end, I think this firing really is a diversion to keep people from really looking into the failures of San Jose management and ownership when it comes to drafting, trading, and financial commitment. Maybe you can completely blame a coach for failing to convert power plays in the playoffs, but I don’t…. because long before Ron Wilson was head coach, the Sharks struggled with PP% in the 2000-01 playoffs and the 2001-02 playoffs… and something tells me that if we are good enough to get back next year, that unless management opens their eyes, it will be the downfall once again in the spring of 2009.

- In New York a drunken man fully decked out in a tux was given a felony DWI for driving a riding lawnmower while intoxicated. Who knows the innermost workings of a drunken man’s head… but considering that he already had a previous DWI, my best guess would be that at the time, this seemed like the ‘responsible’ thing to do.

- Academics cost the WSU football team here in Pullman 8 scholarships. The good news is that new coach Paul Wulff’s former school, Eastern Washington, scored higher than average. Because to be brutally honest folks, if we aren’t one of the leaders of the Pac-10 in scholar athletes, when it comes to football, we aren’t going to be leading in much. I guess then maybe I had the wrong impression about Bill Doba… it’s either that or this was out of his hands, because I didn’t think he’d allow this to happen under his watch. But if he did, then football aside, it may have been a good move because I’ve always felt integrity is one of the perks of being a WSU Cougar fan. I’d hate to lose that.

- A female runner in Texas took the 1A Texas team track and field championship… by herself. That and she was limited to only five events. Who said there’s no “I” in team?

- Something tells me that Lou Holtz was onto something when he got rid of Troy Hambrick back in 1999 for “off the field” issues.

- According to Nelson Figueora there is no ‘cheerleading’ in baseball. “[The Washington Nationals] were cheerleading in the dugout like a bunch of softball girls,” Figueroa said. “I’m a professional, just like anybody else. I take huge offense to that. If that’s what a last-place team needs to do to fire themselves up, so be it. I think you need to show a little bit more class, a little bit more professionalism.” Firstly, who said pro athletes couldn’t have fun? And secondly… who the hell is Nelson Figuera?

- I have major problems with the NHL. This weekend I settled down on the couch to try and watch the weekend playoff games on NBC as I have been for a few weeks now… and the morons… er… powers that be apparently decided to only broadcast game 5 in each of the two conference finals rather than games 2 and 5. Well, guess what? Thanks to that decision, someone who actually wants to watch hockey, can’t. For a league as desperate for fans as the NHL is, they certainly don’t know how to market their product. Pitiful.

- You know, I remember this offseason everyone crying about the Florida Marlins’ payroll, and how terrible it was that they would trade away both Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera. Well, it’s May and the Marlins are tied for the best winning percentage in baseball. They may not stay up there, but a lot of well-paid professionals and critics owe everyone an apology.

You know, I’m trying to keep this as positive as possible, but this was just a really bad way to end such a great season. The Sharks dominated the entire NHL for more than a month and then struggled to stay alive as long as they did in the playoffs.Obviously the team peaked way too soon, and either the magic ran out of other teams learned how to attack/ defend us by the time the playoffs hit. It also didn’t help any that we drew two teams in Calgary and Dallas that were quite familiar with the Sharks. So rather than start pining over the playoffs specifically, let’s take a quick look at what went wrong this year and what the Sharks need to do to address this in the offseason.

Offseason Goals

The offseason goals are just that: goals… more of them. I see two problems with the Sharks when it comes to goal scoring: 1. The Sharks were 19th in the regular season in goals scored, and 2. The Sharks top goal scorer (Big Joe Thornton) only had 29 goals. The second may not seem obviously a problem, but only ten teams (including the Sharks) had a top scorer with fewer than 30 goals. Of those teams, only 3 teams made it to the Conference Semifinals: the Sharks, Rangers and Avalanche. Needless to say, neither of these teams really did very well - the Sharks were less than ten minutes away from dropping the series 4 games to 1.

I guess what I’m trying to say is that there has to be some sort of correlation between goals scored, not just by a team, but also by their leading scorer. That being said, the Sharks have three options: do nothing (most likely), sign a free agent this offseason, make a trade, or really work with their prospects to make sure that they get production in 2008-09.

Free Agents/Trades

Honestly, when it comes to trades, who knows. It’s really impossible to predict the trades Dougie Wilson makes, so I’m not even going to try, but I will state the obvious: the Sharks traded up to draft Logan Couture who will be blocked by Pat Marleau. That is all I will say. As for free agents that will be available this offseason, there are a few I wouldn’t mind seeing the Sharks pick up… but they probably won’t. As you can tell, I’m picking out the guys who aren’t past their primes (a la Jeremy Roenick).

Bryan Campbell (28 years old)

This one is obvious and needs no analysis; he makes their PP work.

Sean Avery (27 years old)

First, yes, Avery is a huge douchebag. But he’d be our douchebag. In only 57 games this year, the agitator picked up 15 goals and 125 shots on goal. His attitude alone would be a great addition to the team; let’s get our swagger back.

John-Michael Liles (26 years old)

Sure, I’d rather they just find a way to keep Campbell, but if they can’t, Liles has pretty good offensive skills and put 163 shots on goal this year; that was good enough to make him 14th among all defenseman.

Ryan Malone (27 years old)

Ryan is definitely not going to solve anything major, but a one-year contract wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world. Malone scored 27 goals this year, and knows what it’s like to play with an elite center.

Marian Hossa (28 years old)

Okay, so this just plain isn’t going to happen. Hossa is arguably the top free agent in this year’s class, and there will be a bidding war for his 35-40 goals a year. I can only imagine though what he could do on a line with Thornton…

Prospecting

The main reason why the Sharks won’t be signing any of the wingers I mentioned above is the fact that they have two forwards in the top 19 prospects in hockey. Both Devin Setoguchi and Logan Couture have the potential to become a second-line forward and first-line forward respectively. If Couture can at least make the leap to the Sharks’ second line next year and put 15-20 goals into the net, that will be a huge boost.As I mentioned earlier, Couture is blocked at his natural position by Marleau, but maybe Marleau can shift to Thornton’s wing full time or Couture can play on Malreau’s wing?

I don’t know, but it seems like before they do anything drastic they need to give this guy a good look. Unfortunately Setoguchi probably tops out as a second line player… as does almost every winger in their organization. Hence, Devin is not the answer, but how about top two lines of Marleau-Thornton-Michalek and Setoguchi-Couture-Cheechoo?

Well, that’s it for now. If the Sharks do anything exciting this offseason of course I’ll have to cover it; otherwise Jumping the Shark(ie) is going on hiatus for a little while…