Last June (so almost a year ago) I wrote this post citing numerous similarities between the World Series winning Florida Marlins teams and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, and stating the the 2008 team “will win the AL Wild Card and make things interesting“. Since Tampa’s success is a hot topic lately, I thought it would be a good time to revisit this post, the insane reasons for my prediction, and see if I can find any statistical links showing why the Devil Rays are suddenly considered to be a legit Wild Card contender, when last year about this time I couldn’t seem to find anyone to agree with me…

Insanity Prevails

Okay, so the basis for my logic last time around was pretty slim, but it is spooky, and I must say, original. Like I said last time, the Florida Marlins won the Series exactly 10 years after expansion: this is year 10 for the Tampa Bay franchise. Less than 10 years after Disney made a movie using the Los Angeles Angels (Angles in the Outfield), the Angels won the Series in 2002. That same year, The Rookie was released, and by my logic, passed on the mojo to the Devil Rays. The logic also included some other pretty far-fetched similarities to World Series winners. A new one that I’ve noticed is that 2002 is the first year that the Angels used ‘Anaheim’ on their jerseys since 1965… hence a name change? Of course the Tampa Bay team dropped the unmentionable word Devil from their name in 2008. Also, the 2002 the Angels were predicted to finish second-to-last in the AL West… well, the Devil Rays were predicted to finish second-to-last in the AL East.

That’s probably enough hodge podge, so why don’t I actually try to show how this year is the year rather than rely completely on horoscopes and random connections to past winners…

Counter Argument: “The Devil Rays Do This Every Year”

True. The Tampa Bay franchise has typically been plagued by seasons of hot starts and slow finishes. So really, in order to prove that they are legit in 2008, I just need to show that they can actually sustain their hot start this time around. If they can keep this up, then there is no reason why they can’t be in the running for the 2008 Wild Card.

A Year Older, A Year Wiser

First off, age does make a difference; especially with pitching staffs. It makes a difference mainly because if your pitchers are too young, they don’t have the game experience or maturity to know what to do when things get sticky. Younger pitchers are also more likely to rely on a single pitch - typically their fastball - and try to strike everyone out. Even one more year of big league experience can really help a guy work out issues like that. For example, take a look at Edwin Jackson’s xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) from 2005 to 2008. Since having an xFIP of 6.53 in 2005, he has gone down each year to 5.50, 5.02, and 4.30 in 2008. Since this is a pitching stat that does not rely on fielding at all, that has to mean that Edwin is making better pitches and probably has learned a thing or two over the years.

In fact, this is Tampa’s oldest average pitching staff (average 28.0 years old) since the 1999-2000 seasons with an average of 29.3 years of age, but those staffs were headlined by guys like Bobby Witt, Wilson Alvarez, Steve Trachsel, and Doc Gooden… not Scott Kazmir and James Shields. So it is entirely plausible that Tampa Bay has enough experience to help maintain solid play throughout 2008 and avoid another letdown.

A Run Prevented Is Just As Good As A Run Scored

Right now, Tampa Bay is on pace to make a total of 78 errors during the 2008 season. That is significantly lower than the error totals of 117 and 116 in 2007 and 2006. Of these errors, in 2007 22 were made at second base (led by BJ Upton), 16 at third base (led by Akinoir Iwamura), 25 at shortstop (led by Brendan Harris), and 13 in the outfield (led by Delmon Young). So as you can tell from this list, none of the major violators of proper fielding are still with the team, or still at those positions.

In comparison, so far in 2008, the team has made 0 errors at 2B, 2 errors at third base, and 6 errors at shortstop. Although the 6 errors at SS projects out to 22 - roughly the same as in 2007 - there have been major signs of defensive improvement by the team, and in the cases of Iwamura and Upton, they are much better defenders at their new positions than at their “natural” positions. The end result? a fielding percentage of .987 - a number good enough to put them #1 in the AL East, #5 in all of baseball.

In terms of what that means to their pitching, the teams DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistic) is 109% of their ERA. Hence, their defense bails out their staff for about 1/3 of a run per game. If the team can keep up this defense - or even improve at SS since Jason Bartlett’s .594 OPS isn’t exactly making him irreplaceable in the lineup - then I’d have to think that Tampa has the ability to stay in the top 10 in team ERA, and give them a much better chance at hanging around in 2008 to make a run.

What They Are Lacking

The biggest problem last year was their bullpen, but I think that Troy Pervical was a good addition there. Also, you have converted starters like JP Howell and Dan Wheeler (who was a starter for the Rays back in the day) doing quite well, and even Trevor Miller has held his own (although if they want to win… they’ll have to do better than Trevor Miller). They still need a couple of arms in the bullpen to make up for when their starters begin to struggle or need rest.

I think they also lack a power-bat since Carlos Pena - surprise, surprise - hasn’t been able to match his career year of 2007 which was dramatically different than his career stats suggested he was capable of.

I think that they can address these issues in a few ways. One way is of course by trading. I think that one option that cannot be dismissed is using their #5 prospect Reid Brignac as a trading chip. Really, Brignac has okay power, and some guys like this carry much more value as prospects than they ever will as major leaguers. Using Brignac as a chip to get a relief pitcher might not be a bad idea, especially since the Rays have the #1 overall draft pick this year and are likely to grab high school shortstop Tim Beckham with the pick.

The other options are to pre-maturely call up their #2, #3, or #4 prospects David Price, Jake McGee or Wade Davis to fill out their bullpen. I’d have to cite how coming out of the pen seems to have helped to develop guys like Johan Santana and more recelntly Zack Greinke. Not only that, but Baseball America projects McGee to be a relief pitcher anyway… so might as well get things going in that direction.

As for first base… not a whole lot you can do besides wait it out. Pena had a terrible April last year before a .356 May… so there may be at least a .260 hitter in there somewhere waiting to come out and play.

Tampa Bay - Your 2008 AL Wild Card Team

In the end, maybe I’ve convinced you… maybe I haven’t. But I sure am glad that it’s at least a discussion… and I have to at least throw out the possibility that the sudden decrease in steroid use will favor the small-market clubs for a while as they have probably stockpiled the young hitters who traditionally would have been held back until they developed more power (Even Longoria, BJ Upton, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Daric Barton, etc). Now, the league is regressing back to where a good gap hitter seems to be the prototypical player… not your beefed up slugger. And as long as the league keeps regressing back to a time when pitching and hitting for average were key, I think the smaller clubs have more than a decent chance against the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, and other big market teams.