[When it comes time to talk San Jose Sharks hockey, it’s time to Jump the Shark(ie). A column based on my thoughts, observations, and commentary on my favorite NHL franchise - and named in homage to one really crappy episode of Happy Days that more or less, signified the coming of the end ]

Ron Wilson… Pack Your Crap and Get Out

So in my last Sharks post, I talked about the offseason changes that the Sharks needed to make this year. Firing Ron Wilson was certainly not one of them. In my mind, Wilson was given a team that severely lacked a marquee goal scorer, and did the proper thing of focusing on defense and limiting their opponents’ chances. So my previous focus was on the Sharks needing to find someone who they could count on to score 40+ goals a year.

What scares me about this move is that quite often, when coaching regimes change, they change into polar opposites. The Sharks played a stifling defense but suffered on offense. My fear is that they hire someone who wants to “open things up” and focus their game more on offense. Only problem with that to me is that both Los Angeles and Tampa Bay outscored the Sharks this year… and those two teams tied for the worst teams in the NHL this season.

Statistical Approach to 2008 Offseason

So since I didn’t see this coming, I figured I better take a step back and look at what was important to winning hockey games in 2007-2008. To do this, I took a look at most team stats available, and compared statistical correlation between that stat category, and team points (two points for a win, one for OLT). To explain, a correlation of 1.0 means that there is a direct linear relationship between a stat category and a correlation of 0 means that stat has nothing to do with team points in the big picture. The results are as follows:

One thing that surprised me was the complete lack of correlation between faceoff percentage and team points. So many analysts stress the importance of winning faceoffs… and really it has nothing to do with winning and losing hockey games in the big picture (certainly there are specific games that have come down to a key faceoff win… but overall it just doesn’t matter). The other one is shots on goal. One might think that more shots on goal leads to more goals and hence, more wins. Maybe not.

Obviously, what is important is keeping the puck out of your own net, scoring on the power play, and limiting your opponent’s scoring chances; under the guidance of Ron Wilson, the Sharks finished in the top five for all three of these stat categories. So then what went wrong? Well, the team finsihed in the top five for all three categories in the regular season. In the playoffs, the Sharks currently sit second in the average number of shots allowed and fourth in goals against average. So nothing wrong there, with the team or its coaching. The problem, was being 12th out of 16 teams in the average number of power play goals per game, and hey, 12th in power play conversion percentage. Strangely enough, when I go back to last year’s playoffs, the Sharks were 13th in PP%, and wow, 10th the year before that.

So statistically, the downfall of the Sharks can really be pinpointed down to a lack of power play goals in the playoffs.

So What Does It All Mean?

To me, it means that Sharks fans should be wary of Ron Wilson’s firing. Like I said before, in pro sports when a lack of offense - in this case power play goals - is suspected to be the downfall of the team, a polar opposite coach is often hired who forgets defense in the name of more offense. If this were to happen, it would mean some serious problems for the Sharks who, in my opinion, already have the problem of wearing some seriously hideous unis.

It also means that my original analysis may have been spot on - that the Sharks just need a marquee goal scorer. The fact that their leading scorer put fewer than 30 pucks in the back of the net to me means that there is no “go to guy” who steps up in the playoffs. Also, Joe Thornton is one of the elite passers in the game… and shouldn’t be relied upon to score our goals.

The Sharks Are Just Being Cheap

So, in the end, Ron Wilson’s firing to me is a smokescreen for failure to develop a marquee scorer from within (i.e. have not drafted well), and also aren’t willing to spend the money to bring a Stanley Cup to the Bay Area. The fact of the matter is, despite increasing payroll by $10 million in the past three seasons (the Sharks actually lowered payroll by 5% this year) the Sharks have the 20th highest payroll in all of hockey. I think that the fans, who helped the team average 99.5% capacity deserve at least a payroll/ financial commitment that reflects their support for the team.

Folks, in the end, I think this firing really is a diversion to keep people from really looking into the failures of San Jose management and ownership when it comes to drafting, trading, and financial commitment. Maybe you can completely blame a coach for failing to convert power plays in the playoffs, but I don’t…. because long before Ron Wilson was head coach, the Sharks struggled with PP% in the 2000-01 playoffs and the 2001-02 playoffs… and something tells me that if we are good enough to get back next year, that unless management opens their eyes, it will be the downfall once again in the spring of 2009.