Every year in the draft, the experts tout their “sleepers”, who then quickly get taken up four rounds before they were valued at. Well, only problem with that strategery is that even if the guy pans out and produces stats at the level you reached for him at, most likely you still did not get a bargain.

No, to me the entire concept of the “sleeper” has gotten so screwed up, that I’m really starting to hate the word. I mean, how many times have you been in the leagues where rookies and “sleepers” get taken in the first 5-7 rounds? Again, unless you get them at or around their original sticker price, they are not considered “sleepers”.

So forget the sleeper… the draft is about getting value for as many picks as possible.  Especially in the middle rounds where you are filling in your roster and somewhat handcuffed.

So, with that in mind, here is one player per position who seems to be a good value based on their average draft positions as posted on Yahoo! for the early drafts that have already taken place… and one player who you might avoid falling into the trap with everyone else:

Catcher

Best Value: Bengie Molina (SF)

Worst Value: Victor Martinez (CLE)

I have Bengie Molina as the 10th best catcher in the roto game. But his ADP in Yahoo leagues is 194. That’s still taking him much sooner than he is projected to be worth, but considering that the 194 ADP puts him as the probably 12th catcher drafted in your league. I’d have to say to keep your eye on him.

V-Mart on the other hand, may be the best catcher this year. But does that make him a second round pick? I certainly hope not. His projected roto rank puts him at 57th.

Overall though, no catcher projects to be a “value”, and I’m half tempted this season to actually go into the season sans backstop and see how it works out.

First Base

Best Value - Adrian Gonzalez (SD)

Worst Value - Jason Giambi (NYY)

Really, first base is one of the few positions where players get taken at about the right places. That being said, Adrian Gonzalez is projected at 74th in roto rank and is being taken with the 92nd pick on average. Thats a round and a half for you to grab Gonzalez who, at 26, is a breakout candidate.

Do I have to really explain Giambi? Man, I bet Yankee fans are going to be overjoyed when that mistake of a contract runs out.

Second Base

Best Value: Luis Castillo (NYM)

Co-Best Value: Placido Polanco (DET)

Worst Value: Brian Roberts (BAL) 

Luis Castillo is a great player for potentially 20+ steals and a lot of runs.  Castillo is on the Mets now, and the Mets have had no trouble in the past giving guys the green light on the basepaths.  For example, last year Castillo stole 9 bases in 85 games for the Twins.  Compare that with 10 bases in 50 games with the Mets.  Now, don’t draft Castillo, as his projected rank isn’t that high.  But if you find yourself without any SB threats at the end of your draft, Castillo is only going in about 2/3 of the drafts… so whether you draft him or not he still might be there for you when you need him.

Polanco on the other hand is being drafted, and being taken about 16 picks later than he should be taken, which is at 146.

Brian Roberts is being taken as the #4 2B in drafts… as he should be.  Problem as I see it is that he is being taken in the first three rounds and projected to have round five value.  2B is actually somewhat deep this year with guys like Kendrick, Weeks, and Kelly Johnson so I think that it might be better to wait and let the other guys grab the top 4 2B unless one falls in your lap.

Shortstop

Best Value - Michael Young (TEX)

Worst Value - Rafael Furcal (LAD)

Remember Michael Young?  Yes, Young is actually one of the few shortstops who isn’t being drafted too early in the 7th round.  I have him at 77th and he is being taken with the 81st pick.

Rafael Furcal screws me sideways every year.  Maybe this is personal, and maybe it’s because his ADP 0f 75 looks to be over 30 picks too soon.  No doubt in my mind this happens because of the epidemic of fantasy managers reaching too soon to get guys who can steal bases.  But Furcal is only going to get you 25 bags this year… same as Luis Castillo… same as Erik Aybar (ADP 386).

Third Base

Best Value - Ryan Zimmerman (WAS)

Worst Value - Chone Figgins (LAA)

Ryan Zimmerman, is 23 years old.   23 years old and playing in his 3rd season of major league baseball.  So if he had an off year last year… you’ll have to forgive him.  Zimm already put up a season with 10 SB, 20HR and 100RBI.  So what do you think is going to happen when he “breaks out”?  Considering that he is projected to get you 7SB, 25HR, and 100RBI, I think you can see why he has good value at the 100th pick in the draft; I think he should go 84th.

Chone Figgins I think is the same old song and dance: reaching for steals.  Again, if you plan accordingly and grab 6-7 players who steal about 10 bags a year you don’t need guys like Figgins… because with guys like Figgins, when they get hurt, what happens to your SB stats?  Yea, they fall off the face of the Earth.  Figgins is currently going 47th… should be going 64th.  Don’t reach for a guy who already has his replacement lined up (Brandon Wood).  You know Figgins is going to pull something at some point this year… the Halos will call up Wood.  If he rakes, what happens to Figgins?

Outfield

Best Value - Nick Markakis (BAL)

Worst Value - Curtis Granderson (DET)

This time, let’s start with the worst value: Granderson.  Call me skeptical, but I worry about a guy who jumped .040 in BA and hit 23 triples.  He will have support this year… that’s for sure.  So will they let Granderson be as risky on the basepaths?  Look, there’s just too many things that could go wrong here, so I think he should be drafted closer to his projected value of 41 than where he is currently going (31).  If you wind up with the 30th/31st pick and need an outfielder… try Alex Rios instead, who is projected at 30 and being drafted at 36.

So that makes Markakis the best value in my mind.  Here is a guy who is only 24, he walks, hits for power, and steals a decent amount of bases.  He’s going to help you in every category, and while projected at 42, you should take him before the 61st pick… which is where he is going.

Starting Pitchers

Best Value - Scott Kazmir (TB)

Co-Best Value - CC Sabathia (CLE)

Worst Value -  Francisco Liriano (MIN)

I don’t know why Kazmir is down at the 79th pick when I have him at 54… that’s 2 whole rounds of people missing out on this one.  Sabathia is not quite as much of a conundrum as I know that a great deal of fantasy managers buy into the LIMA plan of buying pitchers later rather than sooner.  Only problem, in my mind, with that plan is that pitching is half the game, and it only works if you are the only one abiding by the plan.   So CC is being drafted with the 42nd pick… I have him at 29th.  So if I can get my #4 SP in the 3rd round, I see that as a deal.

Okay, so Liriano.  Here is the big debate of the year.  Will he - or can he - regain his top form?  If so, he is one of the 5 best starters in the majors and a great pickup at 110.  If he takes that one year to recover though - as is common with pitchers who get TJ - then he might perform closer to his projected level of  133.  Either way, you’ve got to treat this guy carefully because, yes, if he throws gas you are the most brilliant man alive for taking him in the 9th round.  But if he falters - possibly with a lack of run support - then you just threw away a pick that could have been used a little better with Ben Sheets, James Shields, Yovani Gallardo, and Rich Hill all on the board.  This all goes back to the idea where, they aren’t sleepers or steals if you take them too soon…

Relief Pitchers

Best Value - Mariano Rivera (NYY)

Worst Value - Francisco Cordero (CIN)

First off, yes, my projection system has the top relief pitchers going about 20 picks before they go in the average Yahoo draft.  But here’s the thing: top closers make great trade bait,  every save is not equal (some are 2-3 strikeout appearances with low ERA, low WHIP while some are high ERA, high WHIP), and every year you are much more likely to find a guy like Yovani Gallardo or Hunter Pence on the waiver wire than a Jonathan Papelbon.  Also, what happens when you take the first relief pitcher in the draft?  The second?  Yea, every manager gets thrown completely off their game and closers start going faster than liquor at the Lohan household.  All that being said, I’ll address value here by the position order, not necessarily ADP.  So whenever your league goes into a closer frenzy, you’ll know when to jump in.

When it comes to Rivera, I think you need to give this guy the benefit of the doubt.  Last year he was working with a sub-par bullpen and rotation, and posted his only ERA greater than 3.00 since his rookie year in 1995.  Not only that, his WHIP of 1.12 was his worst since 1997 and was the same or better than Trevor Hoffman, Francisco Rodriguez, and Billy Wagner.  Add in the fact that his post all-star break ERA and WHIP were 2.52 and 1.09, there’s no reason why this guy should be the 9th or 10th closer drafted.  Honestly, I think this guy can be the #4 closer in the game this year…. but with ADP factored in, let’s say you shouldn’t wait too much longer if 5 closers have already been taken.

How many save opps you think Francisco Cordero is even going to get with the Reds this year?  Overall, the entire Reds team was 26th last year in total saves, so we can’t expect Coredero to even get that many opportunities, and last year he converted 86% of his save opps.  Basically, right now people are taking him as the #8 closer… wait for the second round of closers to take this guy as I don’t like his chances for many saves with Cinci’s rotation.

That’s it folks.  If you have questions about specific players, feel free to ask.  Right now I’m signed up to draft using my projections in a Yahoo! PLUS league (only way I could guarantee quality opponents) in the next week or two.  Once I do, I’ll let you know how the system worked out so you can make your own judgments about the kind of team I put together using it.

My ADP adjusted roto rankings can be seen here