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2008 Adjusted Roto Fantasy Baseball Rankings

February 13th, 2008 · 2 Comments

wizardbaseball1.gifGotten a few people more than a bit overwhelmed by the differences between the ranks purely done by percentages of stats in the 5 roto categories.  Seems that one thing that people might be forgetting is that every stat counts, so the more balanced someone is over the 5 categories, the better they are going to be for your team.

Well, so what I did was factor ADP into my rankings.  The theory behind that is that my rankings were completely formula based towards ranking players in their order of individual roto contributions, not overall stats or positions.  So, for example, catchers seem to be absuloutely pitiful in roto when you look at the stats.  So the argument I’ve been presented is that since you need all positions, that I need to weight by position.  My contention is that the players you will be able to draft by passing up guys like Mauer and Martin, are going to be way more valuable to your team than even the elite catchers.  You’re better off waiting to grab someone line Bengie Molina at the end of the draft.

Well, so if it’s strategy you want, it’s strategy that you will get.  So here is what you get when you take the 100% math based ranks and average them with ADP.  It’s much more aligned to what you are used to looking at, and let me remind you, that although this method is completely untested, isn’t the whole point to take a Moneyball approach to drafting and see if you can’t figure out a way of doing things that helps to place more accurate value on players?  That’s fine if you want to go with the standard Yahoo! rankings, but not me.  Nope, I think that in order to be successful, you need a unique - really emphasizing the unique here people - strategy in order to win.  Things like the LIMA plan are great… uless you’ve got another manager or two in the same draft trying the same thing.  If that happens, you just fall into the trap again of targeting players and taking them before even you think they should go.

So in my humble - and typically incorrect opinion - if you want to win, you have to take risks.  Well, this is a big risk… unless of course it works and then I’ll be rich.

Adjusted Ranks (Top 275)

1. Álex Rodríguez
2. Albert Pujols
3. David Wright
4. Hanley Ramírez
5. Matt Holliday
6. Miguel Cabrera
7. José Reyes
8. Chase Utley
9. Ryan Howard
10. Johan Santana
11. Jimmy Rollins
12. David Ortiz
13. Prince Fielder
14. Jake Peavy
15. Ryan Braun
16. Vladimir Guerrero
17. Grady Sizemore
18. Carl Crawford
19. Alfonso Soriano
20. Carlos Lee
21. Mark Teixeira
22. Carlos Beltrán
23. Lance Berkman
24. Jonathan Papelbon
25. Magglio Ordóñez
26. Brandon Webb
27. Ichiro Suzuki
28. J.J. Putz
29. C.C. Sabathia
30. Álex Ríos
31. Josh Beckett
32. Brandon Phillips
33. B.J. Upton
34. Erik Bedard
35. Joe Nathan
36. Aramis Ramírez
37. Justin Morneau
38. John Lackey
39. Derrek Lee
40. Derek Jeter
41. Curtis Granderson
42. Nick Markakis
43. Travis Hafner
44. Manny Ramírez
45. Cole Hamels
46. Francisco Rodríguez
47. Dan Haren
48. Adam Dunn
49. Garrett Atkins
50. Justin Verlander
51. Chipper Jones
52. Bobby Abreu
53. Takashi Saito
54. Scott Kazmir
55. Torii Hunter
56. Robinson Canó
57. Víctor Martínez
58. Aaron Harang
59. Carlos Peña
60. Mariano Rivera
61. Miguel Tejada
62. Brian Roberts
63. Troy Tulowitzki
64. Chone Figgins
65. Russell Martin
66. Carlos Zambrano
67. Carlos Guillén
68. Eric Byrnes
69. Roy Oswalt
70. Paul Konerko
71. Félix Hernández
72. John Smoltz
73. Hunter Pence
74. Adrián González
75. Corey Hart
76. Chris Young
77. Michael Young
78. Roy Halladay
79. Billy Wagner
80. Chris Young
81. José Valverde
82. Vernon Wells
83. Javier Vázquez
84. Ryan Zimmerman
85. Bobby Jenks
86. Daisuke Matsuzaka
87. Ian Kinsler
88. Hideki Matsui
89. Jason Bay
90. Brad Hawpe
91. Huston Street
92. Jeff Francoeur
93. Kelvim Escobar
94. Fausto Carmona
95. Andruw Jones
96. Joe Mauer
97. James Shields
98. Francisco Cordero
99. Nick Swisher
100. Dan Uggla
101. Adrián Béltre
102. Rafael Soriano
103. Gary Sheffield
104. Todd Helton
105. Delmon Young
106. Brett Myers
107. Matt Cain
108. Rich Hill
109. Rafael Furcal
110. Tim Lincecum
111. Jim Thome
112. Trevor Hoffman
113. Juan Pierre
114. Jermaine Dye
115. Yovani Gallardo
116. Brian McCann
117. Mike Lowell
118. Rickie Weeks
119. Ben Sheets
120. Brad Lidge
121. A.J. Burnett
122. Manny Corpas
123. Howie Kendrick
124. Brad Penny
125. Johnny Damon
126. John Maine
127. Matt Capps
128. Raúl Ibañez
129. Édgar Rentería
130. Jorge Posada
131. Ted Lilly
132. Shane Victorino
133. Francisco Liriano
134. Jered Weaver
135. Matt Kemp
136. Joakim Soria
137. Orlando Cabrera
138. Jason Isringhausen
139. Chad Billingsley
140. Pat Burrell
141. Aaron Rowand
142. Ken Griffey Jr.
143. Alex Gordon
144. Chad Cordero
145. Pedro Martínez
146. Plácido Polanco
147. Carlos Delgado
148. Ian Snell
149. James Loney
150. Kevin Youkilis
151. Tim Hudson
152. Michael Cuddyer
153. Chien-Ming Wang
154. Jeremy Bonderman
155. Joba Chamberlain
156. Jeremy Hermida
157. Dustin Pedroia
158. Jeff Francis
159. Kelly Johnson
160. Kosuke Fukudome
161. J.J. Hardy
162. Josh Fields
163. Adam Wainwright
164. Derek Lowe
165. Josh Willingham
166. Jacoby Ellsbury
167. Joe Blanton
168. Edwin Encarnación
169. Josh Hamilton
170. Jonathan Broxton
171. Ryan Garko
172. Troy Percival
173. Jhonny Peralta
174. Jeff Kent
175. Khalil Greene
176. Oliver Pérez
177. Hank Blalock
178. Dustin McGowan
179. Bronson Arroyo
180. Phil Hughes
181. Carlos Mármol
182. Adam LaRoche
183. Kenji Johjima
184. Willy Taveras
185. José Guillén
186. B.J. Ryan
187. Andy Pettitte
188. J.D. Drew
189. Orlando Hudson
190. Frank Thomas
191. Clay Buchholz
192. Dontrelle Willis
193. Gary Matthews Jr.
194. Troy Glaus
195. Rafael Betancourt
196. Tom Gorzelanny
197. Eric Gagne
198. Kevin Gregg
199. Stephen Drew
200. Barry Zito
201. Melky Cabrera
202. Joey Votto
203. Gil Meche
204. Aaron Hill
205. Zack Greinke
206. Rich Harden
207. Joe Borowski
208. Julio Lugo
209. Felipe López
210. Ty Wigginton
211. Kevin Kouzmanoff
212. Tony Peña
213. Jeremy Accardo
214. Randy Johnson
215. Brian Wilson
216. Mark Buehrle
217. Freddy Sánchez
218. Mike Cameron
219. Todd Jones
220. Moisés Alou
221. Kevin Slowey
222. Billy Butler
223. Evan Longoria
224. Shaun Marcum
225. Conor Jackson
226. Bob Howry
227. Yunel Escobar
228. Garret Anderson
229. Bill Hall
230. Richie Sexson
231. Mark Teahen
232. Matt Garza
233. Greg Maddux
234. Austin Kearns
235. Rick Ankiel
236. Jarrod Saltalamacchia
237. Iván Rodríguez
238. Geovany Soto
239. Hiroki Kuroda
240. Bengie Molina
241. Justin Upton
242. Coco Crisp
243. Chris Duncan
244. Akinori Iwamura
245. C.J. Wilson
246. Casey Kotchman
247. Michael Bourn
248. Jack Cust
249. Kazuo Matsui
250. Rocco Baldelli
251. Jason Giambi
252. David DeJesús
253. Mark Ellis
254. Mark Reynolds
255. Kerry Wood
256. Lastings Milledge
257. Ubaldo Jiménez
258. Aubrey Huff
259. Jon Garland
260. Casey Blake
261. Lyle Overbay
262. Jason Varitek
263. Jeremy Guthrie
264. A.J. Pierzynski
265. Ramón Hernández
266. Randy Winn
267. Dave Bush
268. Chris Carpenter
269. Scott Baker
270. Wily Mo Peña
271. Milton Bradley
272. Chuck James
273. Ryan Theriot
274. Eric Chávez
275. Adam Jones

Realistically, this is going to be a better approach for me anyway because then I am much less likely to be forced into drafting players multiple rounds before my counterparts might.   So this - or something very close to it - will be the final rankings I will test out in a randomly assigned competitive roto league this year.

Tags: Baseball · Fantasy Sports

2 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Toby // Feb 17, 2008 at 12:16 am

    This is one of the best roto rankings I’ve seen around. Excellent work.

    Question: I’m in a league with 22 active spots, and 5 reserve. How does this kind of setup affect relative value? Does it increase the value of rare commodities like saves and steals?

  • 2 eric // Feb 17, 2008 at 9:29 am

    Toby,

    Good question. Some of that depends on what the extra active spots are, like utility, infield, etc.

    But in general I think you are absolutely right to assume that with extra roster spots, the stats like saves and stolen bases aren’t going to be available on the waiver wire.

    In terms of SB, I still think that it’s a better strategy to target players who steal 5-15 bases a year instead of paying top dollar for guys who steal 30+. For example, at 1B if you can hold off to draft Lance Berkman or Derrick Lee, you can get 6-10 more stolen bases out of your team and then it takes the pressure off to draft a guy like Willy Taveras who is drafted, on average, about three rounds too soon.

    Actually, a guy you may want to consider is Luis Castillo. The Mets have never been afraid to let guys run (see David Wright and Jose Reyes) and he is typically being taken about 137 picks later than his projected value.

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