Yea, I know. Fantasy baseball drafts are still at least a month away. That, and I have barely posted at all, especially concerning WSU hoops, the A’s, the Sharks etc. Well, all I can say is:

• I am taking 19 credits this semester (full time is 12)
• I have 4 - count ‘em - 4 part-time jobs
• I am working on a very comprehensive ranking system for roto fantasy baseball based on 2008 predicted stats by at least 4-6 different sources, my own position scarcity system, and adjustments for head-to-head, and keeper leagues.

So yea, I’ve been busy. Way to busy to write about people getting kicked in the balls or about how much I think guys like Brady Quinn and Scott Loeffler are overrated. So, considering that I have logged quite a few hours compiling data and reviewing stats, allow me to share some observations as you get ready for the upcoming fantasy season…

Catchers are friggin’ worthless

Worthless I tell ya. Seriously, many teams might be better of not drafting a catcher… at all. First off, not a single catcher - not even Russell Martin or Victor Martinez - made my top 115. Would have been top 120 but Martin snuck in at 119. So although I still have to add 2-3 sets of projected stats to the rankings… right now it looks like in a 12 team league, the first catcher should go in about the 9th or 10th round. That’s not what’s going to happen- some fool will take Martin in the 5th or 6th, I guarantee it - meaning that any rational manager is going to be stuck with absolute crap. I think the standard Yahoo! league is a 12 team, 21 man roster. In that case, there are only 252 draft picks. Let me list the catchers who actually rank in the top 252 players for 2008 based on their projected stats:

• Russell Martin (119)
• Victor Martinez (152)
• Joe Mauer (197)
• Jorge Posada (201)
• Brian McCann (242)

Seriously folks… that’s it. So let me tell you what’s going to happen as a result: all 5 of these catchers are going to go way too soon in a draft. So the question then, is how to manage catchers in the standard league. I have seen teams in the past go the entire season without a catcher… and honestly that might not be a terrible idea. If the top 5 catchers are drafted earlier than they should be, then there should be some players slipping through the cracks with higher value. In many cases, it might actually be beneficial to skip the position entirely.

For those of you not willing to take the risk of losing stats, my suggestion then would be to wait until the last few round to draft a catcher, and target one based solely on a single stat. So a guy like Bengie Molina might not even get drafted in some leagues, but his .270-.280 batting average at least won’t hurt your team, and he is bound to get some hits, homeruns, runs and RBI… right?

Head-To-Head Leagues Really Need To Take A Look At Quality Starts

You know, in a roto league, all that matters in the end are the overall numbers. But for anyone who plays in head-to-head leagues, you know very well that one bad week from your ace pitcher can absolutely kill you. With that in mind, I think that one of the most important stats for you to take a look at is the percentage of quality starts. Basically, out of my head-to-head team, I’d rather have consistency than a guy who goes out every other time and dominates. I need a guy to be on every week.

One guy that kind of surprised me, even though I’m an A’s fan and have watched him pitch for a few years now, is Dan Haren. Despite a lackluster second half, he still finished with 82% of his starts being quality starts. Comparing this to starters rankings, I’d like to see if there are any steals that head-to-head managers might take advantage of considering that no rankings take those kind of things into account. One site I really respect is RotoAuthority, so let’s use their latest pitcher rankings to see if I can come up with some bargains, or at least some kind of method for choosing between pitchers in your draft a few months out:

• Right off the bat, it’s Dan Haren again, who is the #10 starter, but #2 last year in percentage of quality starts.
• Fausto Carmona is ranked 38th, and 81% of his starts were quality starts; I guess many think that he can’t repeat his 2007 numbers but even so, he was consistent.
• Brad Penny, ranked 46th was 6th last year in percentage of quality starts.
• Tim Hudson;33rd and 74%
• Orlando Hernandez; unranked and 71%
• Shawn Hill; unranked and 69%

Also, that means that there are some lemons out there; pitchers who have great numbers or are ranked highly but their percentage of quality starts suggests that some weeks you will have wished you passed them up and taken Ross Gload instead. Just kidding, no one ever gets passed up for Ross Gload. Anyway, here’s some stats to make you think some:

• Josh Beckett, who is ranked 6th, had a quality start 2 of every3 games. That’s kind of worrysome for a guy who could be one of the top pitchers in the draft.
• Cole Hamels, right ahead of Beckett at 5th, had a quality start in just over half of his appearances. He’s young, so that might shape up this year… but still.
• Johan Santana, pretty much everyone’s #1, has had his QS% slip from 74% in 2004 to 73%, 71%, and64% in 2005, 06, and 07. He’s still got to be up there on your draft list, but you might drop him down a notch just in case and wait to see if you can get him cheaply instead of using a 1st round pick on him as his projections suggest you should.
• Scott Kazmir, everyone’s favorite because he racks up the strikeouts, only had a quality start 56% of the time. Not a guy I want to take as the #9 pitcher in the draft. I’d pass on him entirely in head-to-head leagues because right behind him is Dan Haren (82%).
• Brandon Webb, at #3 had 65% of his starts resulting in quality starts.
• Carlos Zambrano, 23rd and 53%.

I’m sure I missed some, and by no means am I trying to imply these guys are crap; all I’m saying is that rankings… pretty much all rankings… are based on full-season stats which favors a roto format. So if you are in a head-to-head format, the two things you need to pay much more attention to are injury history and consistency (i.e. - QS%) beacuse one bad week can really cost you down the stretch… or in the playoffs.