You know, with the Chargers heading to certain victory against the Titans, I decided to look back and see how Yahoo!’s expert Chris Carter did at predicting the games. Well, here’s how he did: he was .500 on the weekend. Now, since I got an ‘A’ in my stats and probability class, I know that since each game has two teams, the odds of picking the winner in a completely even field is .500 for each game. Carter’s predictions fit perfectly into those odds, especially when you consider that he picked two home teams and two away teams. Really, all the expert was able to do was hedge his bets and come out even… much better than if he had only one, or zero, correct predictions.

So then I had to think, do we really need paid “experts” to predict these games for us? If the odds are going to amount to .500, who can do a better job: a quarter or Chris Carter? To do this, I grabbed a witness and set the rules: starting with the first game on Saturday, if the quarter landed heads up, that would be predicting that the home team would be a winner, if tails then the away team gets the prediction.

Toss 1: Redskins at Seahawks

This first toss landed tails up, meaning that the quarter made the incorrect prediction that the Redskins would win in Seattle. Well, we know very well that didn’t happen now, so at this point I am starting to think that I might have to eat my words and sing praise for the “expert” picks.  This quarter sucks.

Toss 2: Jaguars at Steelers

Okay, the second toss was much better. Tails again, and the quarter accurately predicted the Jacksonville upset in Pittsburgh. Now I’m at .500 and its starting to look like all Yahoo! needs is a quarter, not an expert, if all they require is the ability to correctly predict half the playoff games.

Toss 3: Giants at Buccaneers

Third toss and the quarter is on a roll. Tails for a third straight time again predict the upset; this time the Giants over Tampa. Now my quarter is guaranteed to go .500 on the weekend; just as good as Chris Carter.

Toss 4: Titans at Chargers

Finally… heads! Heads and the quarter correctly predicted the Chargers win.  Victory is mine… er, my quarter’s.

Winner: Quarter!

That’s 3 correct predictions for the quarter to the expert’s 2. You know what this means don’t you? Reoccuring post! As soon as the Yahoo! team makes their expert picks, I’ll toss the quarter and we’ll see if you are better off listening to the experts… or tossing a coin.

By the way, in case you were wondering, I’m using a 2006 North Dakota quarter… and if it goes .750 again next weekend I’m taking this baby to Vegas. Oh yea!