[The Elephant Walk is my somewhat regular column on Oakland Athletics baseball. Results, performances, transactions or other thoughts I might have about the A’s]

Well, after my last Elephant Walk, I was ripped by a blog I wish not to mention, who not only got the name of my website wrong, but also took my post out of context. So apparently the post wasn’t a good enough read to actually take the time to understand my point… just enough though to rip me to shreds. So let’s see if I can’t be a little more clear when analyzing the A’s latest trade: Nick Swisher (1B/OF) to the Chicago White Sox for Ryan Sweeney (OF), Gio Gonzalez (LHP), and Fautino De Los Santos (RHP).

And the winner is…
First off, I’m going to flat out state that I think the A’s win the trade. Yes, I know that none of the three players traded to Oakland are major league ready and probably would not have significantly impacted the Sox’s season in 2008, but nonetheless, I think the A’s win… and here is why. First of all, before the Haren trade, starting pitcher Ghad Gaudin found out he needed hip surgery this offseson. Furthermore, can the A’s really count on Rich Harden at all… ever again? The answer by the way, is no, and that means that heading into 2008 the A’s wold have had only Dan Haren and Joe Blanton as good starting pitchers. That’s it. Anyone want to tell me the last time a team like the A’s was able to make a good playoff run with only two quality arms and a depleted bullpen?

That means that well before the A’s traded Haren, they knew damn well that the team could not compete in 2008. So what do you do? Do you keep Dan Haren so you can have a .500 team instead of a .400 team? Hell no. His value has never been higher and may get to that point again this season. Haren was good for 15 wins, but that’s a consolation prize and in the meantime you’ve set your organization back 2 years by not rebuilding when you should have. Basic fact is: quality MLB players like Dan Haren and Nick Swisher are wasted on rebuilding teams. Especially since by the team is able to contend again, Haren and Swisher are only signed for another year or two… and then all the A’s get is a sandwich pick and a few 3rd place finishes in the AL West. No, I think if you are a true fan, you want what’s best for your team in the long run… even if that means throwing in the towel for a year or two.

What the A’s are losing
Really, they are losing a fan favorite and that’s the biggest thing they lose. They lose a personality on and off the field who fans identified with and wanted to root for. They are giving up a guy who has the patience to draw 100+ walks each year; but also strikes out way too much (about 140 times a year on average). In my mind, that makes him a poor man’s Adam Dunn, meaning that yes, the Chi Sox did get somewhat of a bargain here. To the small market A’s, Swisher was going to go from $700k in 2007 to $3.5 million in 2008 and $5.3 million in 2009. Then, if the A’s would have been ready to compete again in 2010, Swisher was going to cost the team $6.75 million and finally $9 million in 2011. On the open market he is a bargain. To a rebuilding team, he is eating up at least $8.8 million in a period of time when the team is unlikely to make a decent playoff run.

Not only that, but Swisher was the player seemingly standing in the way of newly acquired phenom Carlos Gonzalez from being the starter in right field in 2009. Gonzalez could have played in centerfield… but of the three outfielders likely to be vying for starting gigs in ‘09, none of the three of Swisher, Gonzalez, or Travis Buck are really guys you want in centerfield… the land of busted hamstrings and groins.

What the A’s are getting
Well, the biggest gain is an opening in right which is tailor made for Gonzalez once he is good and ready. First base is now going to have to be manned by Daric Barton and Dan Johnson - which I think they can. As for the players they are getting, here’s how it works. They get Ryan Sweeney, who is really not a top prospect per se, but he is only 22 years old and has the making of someone who is more than capable of starting in centerfield eventually for the A’s. Ultimately, it will come down to Sweeney and Chris Denorfia to be the full time centerfielder. Loser of that battle probably becomes the utility outfielder for the team. Either way, they’ve set themselves up nicely for when they let Mark Kotsay go before he starts collecting the big bucks. So to repeat, Sweeney’s not likely to be a stud, rather a good starter. His real value is in keeping Gonzalez in right field.

To me, the most promising player in the trade is Gio Gonzalez. This Gonzalez - and it appears right now that the A’s plan on building a team of guys named Gonzalez - led all minor league pitchers with 285 strikeouts last season in AA. It’s obvious from both trades this offseason that Billy Beane wanted to stock the farm system with serviceable left handed pitching to fill the rotation and bullpen. It’s really not all that absurd considering that good lefthanded pitchers come around much less often. Since the other Gonzalez might not be ready to play every day until 2009, I expect the A’s to let Gio get a feel for AAA in 2008 and not rush him into their linuep.

The final chip, is Fautino De Los Santos. I’m not going to pretend to know a whole helluva lot about this right handed pitcher… but he apparently was voted the South Atlantic League’s Most Outstanding Major League Prospect in 2007, was selected to the futures game, and voted a Baseball America Low Class A All-Star. So he is good, and he has a good upside, but with the guy still in A ball its difficult to project his ultimate value. He might start next season in high A., or AA if the A’s need him to develop sooner. If his development goes well we might see this guy playing his home games in Freemont in 2011ish.

So now what?
Well, so now the A’s have fully committed to this rebuilding effort after having traded their most valuable pitcher and hitter. This means that if at all possible, they really need to move Eric Chavez, even if its for a rusted out Buick or something. Chavez is a financial burden considering his injury history… but if he comes out of the gate in 2008 he might have some trade value. It better happen fast though because he picks up a full no trade clause if he isn’t moved by September of 2008.

Some say Huston Street needs to go, but I believe the A’s have him locked in for 4 more years so it’s probably worth keeping him around for the rebuilding. Joe Blanton is abou the same, so although Billy Beane said that if one goes, they all go… I think its in the team’s best interests to keep these two as they are cheap talent for at least another year or two. If they were set to make $3 mil, it’s a totally different story. At $700k though, if they can be kept, they should be.

So you think I’m an idiot?
Look, there are those out there who argue that any team who can get a guy like Nick Swisher or Dan Haren for prospects only wins every time because they get a “guaranteed” player. That’s fine to have that opinion, but you do have to understand too that this is a business, not your fantasy team. If Billy Beane didn’t have to account for salaries, there is a good chance neither of these guys get dealt. But with those two trades, Beane likely saves the A’s over $9 million in each of 2008 and 2009. Take that savings, and in 2010, when/ if they are talented enough and ready to make a push for the World Series, that $18 million is going to come in handy.

Not only that, but giving up those two players (well, Haren was packaged, so actually three) the A’s get a total of 9 prospects AND save around $9 million a year for the next two years. So tear me up if you like, but well done Oakland. It’s a trade that had to be made with Carlos Gonzalez in the mix, and they made it count.