On the same day that a BCS bowl game will be decided (tOSU vs Michigan), two other teams will be fighting just to make a bowl… any bowl. That really makes it a dangerous game for both teams as you never really want to get a team when their backs are against the wall. I think Stanford saw that last week, and hopefully the Cougars can put together a little winning streak here, which would then be their second two game winning streak of the season. They need a three game streak to be bowl eligible.

What’s Going For The Cougs?
Well, they have history. Between 1996 and 2005, Oregon State and Wazzu have shared two game winning streaks, i.e. WSU won two, OSU won the next two, WSU won the next two… Well, OSU won a pair of games in ‘04 and ‘05 followed by a WSU win in ‘06. considering this trend has held for the past 9 years, this would suggest WSU wraps up their set of games with a win in 2007. The other historical aspect is that in games between OSU and WSU, since 1994 the visiting team has won only twice… and both of those times it was WSU winning in Beaverton. That means it has been well over a decade since the Beavers have won in Martin Stadium.

What About Stats?
Overall, Oregon State is 9th in the conference in total offense - 10th in passing offense and 7th in rushing offense. So OSU really is not set up to take advantage of WSU’s season long weakness (which has shown major improvement by the way), their passing defense. Defensively, OSU’s bread and butter is stopping the run. So the game should come down to WSU stopping the OSU run and OSU stopping the WSU pass.

The other story for OSU is the injury to starting QB Sean Canfield. He is expected to sit out the game against WSU, so when you take the conference-worst passing offense and take the starter out of the picture, this really should suggest that WSU can focus their efforts on the run.

Outcomes
In Vegas, the game started as a Pick ‘em. Dead even line. I think though that as the week went on, and Sean Canfield’s injury looked more and more like it was going to keep him out of the game it moved the line. Since most teams get the home field 3 pts automatically, the fact that the betting line opened even makes me think that Vegas really does think that Oregon State is the better team by about 3 points on a neutral field. Right now, with Sean Canfield looking like he is out, the line sits at 3 in favor of WSU. Rivals.com - a source that I have come to find is very reliable in predicting WSU games - has Wazzu taking down the Beavers 35-24 at home.

For my prediction, I’m going to look at the numbers WSU has put up in their last 3 home games and OSU’s numbers in their last three on the road. Looking at that, OSU’s defense has given up about 32 points on the road - and coincidentally WSU has scored about 31 on offense in their last 3 home games. Similarly, WSU has only allowed 19 points a game at home during the same time OSU has scored about 18 on the road. Using those numbers, and giving the full benefit of the doubt to OSU on both sides of the ball, my stats-driven, prediction would be WSU winning by a score of 31-19… a point differential of 12 instead of the 11 predicted by Rivals.com… not bad.. so I might have to go with that…

Oregon State 19
Washington State 31

And as always.. .go Cougs, and please don’t disrespect the Big Doba.