If there is one stat in baseball that can’t be measured, its luck. Good luck and bad luck and the inability to predict on a day-by-day basis are what make it such a great sport to watch. But over the longhaul, there are many predictions that can be made. Its always been my thought that pitching is king in MLB; how else can you explain the success of the A’s over the past years under Billy Beane?

So its with this misguided thought that I figured I’d take a look at the ratios between two stats and ERA to see if there is possibly any way for me to look really cool if I get some of these right.

Stats Used In Ratios With ERA:
To explain, each of the following stat is divided by current ERA. A result of 1.0 or would suggest that a team’s pitching stats are right on par with their actual performances. Less than 1.0 means that they have pitched better than the numbers show, and greater than 1.0 then, quite obviously means that fans better prepare for a slide in the standings if the team’s hitting can’t bail them out.

• ERC - component ERA is based off hits and walks, not runs
• DIPS - defense independent pitching statistic… or basically a pitcher’s ERA as best predicted if the defense behind every pitcher was the same

Primed For A Nosedive

Florida Marlins - it’s not like they really have that far they can fall: they are only 4.0 games up on the Nats. But the Marlins have been getting very lucky that their baserunns have not crossed home plate more often than they have. Currently boasting the league’s highest ERC/ERA, the team’s 4.41 team ERA should regress some in the coming months.

Arizona Diamondbacks - not playing in the worst division in baseball any longer (that honor now falls to the NL Central), the D-Backs really are playing over their heads and shouldn’t be expected to keep pace with the Dodgers and Padres. Right now, the D-Backs pitching staff is not only putting more guys on base than their ERA suggests, they have also been bailed out by their defense quite a bit. If the luck or defense falters, they’ll be down with the Giants and Rockies shortly.

Pittsburgh Pirates - the Bucs defense has actually played right on par and the DIPS/ERA is 1.0 exactly, so no change there. But Pitt pitchers have been putting guys on base far too often to support their current 4.43 team ERA; I could easily see them finishing last in the NL Central by season’s end.

Minnesota Twins - These are not the Twins we have grown to love. Johan Santana is on pace to give up more walks and home runs than he has during his entire career. Parlay that with Liriano’s absence for the year and it looks like Minnesota might want to start seriously think about being a seller in this year’s trading market. The good news? The Twins can afford to use this year as a learning year for Boof Bonser, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, and Matt Garza; playoffs are not in the picture though.

Los Angeles Angels, Oakland A’s and New York Mets - three teams in the same boat: their pitchers are getting bailed out by defense. If the bounces are lucky right now, they may not always be. I predicted all three of these teams to make the playoffs, so they may be able to sustain their current pitching; which for the A’s and Mets the ERC/ERA numbers suggest they can. The Angels however should be much closer to a 4.00 ERA than their 3.77 suggests.

Mentionable - Detroit, Atlanta.

Playing Their Game
Actually, a few of the teams I was hoping to disprove their current standing were the ones who popped up as performing about as well as they should be. The Yankees, Brewers, Red Sox, and Dodgers. The Tigers could also go here, but they are also toeing the line for teams showing signs for a possible regression. Also, the Rangers really do seem like they are capable of playing sub-.400 ball all year long.

Movers And Shakers

Cincinnati Reds - when you are the worst team in the NL, its really not take sage wisdom to state that they are capable of being better. The Reds post the lowest ERC/ERA - DIPS/ERA combo in baseball, meaning that with a few lucky breaks and better defense the Reds could easily make a push at any time.

Toronto Blue Jays - with the lowest ERC/ERA ratio in the bigs, the Jays aren’t putting guys on base as often as their 4.32 ERA suggests. I think the AL Wild Card is going to come out of the Central or West, but I suppose if things start to click they may be able to finish second in the East.

St. Louis Cardinals - is it really any surprise that the Cardinals, the reigning World Series champs, aren’t playing to their potential? With some luck, and at least one trade, the Red Birds might be able to push the Brew Crew.

Chicago White Sox - the numbers strongly suggest that the White Sox should be able to catch and pass the Tigers by year’s end. Cleveland however may be untouchable.

Cleveland Indians - this is scary. The AL Central’s best team and possibly the hottest team in baseball is actually playing better than their current numbers suggest. It was once thought that the Indians would need prospects Adam Miller and/ or Chuck Lofgren by season’s end. But failed closer Fausto Carmona and the return of Paul Bird has this rotation mowing people down. Their 15-5 record against Central Division opponents also makes them a great pick for the AL Central title.

Mentionable - Colorado (can you say ballpark effects?), Seattle