I know they have test anxiety, so certainly the same principle applies to the NFL draft. Given one of the top five picks in the draft, and you are sitting in a position to be remembered in the bylines of the NFL history books forever: either as the GM who drafted the future Pro Bowler, or as the imbecile who drafted wide receivers three drafts in a row. Its a tough seat to be in, and although I’d love to be in it one day, for now I’m pretty happy with the vantage point I have over the NFL draft, which is as observer, second guesser, and ‘Monday morning quarterback’ all rolled up into one. It also helps that I’m not a fan of any specific NFL team (I’m a college and high school football purist). But unlike an NFL quarterback, I do not need to have a short memory, and still remember quite a few teams blowing the draft like a street junkie looking for a fix. The Jets seem to be experts at this, and if I had more time I’d probably hit the phones to see if I could goat someone from the team into an interview, but it’s the week before finals so honestly I’m just happy to be writing posts at all.

So this Saturday, it will be interesting to consider just how much pressure is on these GM’s to make the right decision, whihc the Texans did not do last year because they got caught up in contracts and money instead of just taking the best player available. I’m a strong proponent that in the first five to ten picks of the draft, especially the number one pick, you should not be addressing “team needs” unless it just so happens that the best player (or second-best) fits that title. You don’t want to be remembered as the team who passed up on the next great NFL star (ahem… Houston, you paying attention back there?)

Now on the clock…

Oakland Raiders

Biggest mistakes made with the first overall pick*: Ki-Jana Carter, Tim Couch, Courtney Brown and Steve Emtman

The first pick in the draft is not only the most valuable, its also the easiest place to screw up. No matter who you pick, they are likely to be the highest paid player of the draft, so you better be sure you are going to get the best player in the draft. Right now, Oakland scares the crap out of me because its widely assumed they will be taking JaMarcus Russell (QB, LSU). I know they need a QB, but are you telling me that you can’t get a hired gun like Kurt Warner or make a trade of some late round picks for Daunte Culpepper? There is also Trent Edwards (QB, Stanford) who will probably still be around in the second round and honestly has a huge upside. Also, Trent is a local kid (from Los Gatos, cleverly nicknamed the Wildcats), and has already gone through his crash testing at Stanford, so he knows how to take a hit. If you ask me, Oakland HAS to take Calvin Johnson (WR, GA Tech) who is widely known to be the most talented player in the draft, and according to Mel Kiper, a guy who only comes around only once every ten years. Yes, Oakland has Randy Moss, but Randy is a huge mistake, and they would only multiply the effect of the mistake if they pass on Johnson.

Right now Oakland is projected to take Jamarcus Russell and then Dwane Jarrett (WR, USC) in the second round, but they’d be complete morons to not make it Johnson and Edwards… if you ask me.

Detroit Lions

Biggest mistakes made with the second overall pick*: Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer, Blair Thomas, Tony Mandarich, Lam Jones, Steve Niehaus and Charles Rogers

Hopefully Oakland helps Detroit out a little bit by doing the right thing and taking Calvin Johnson. Once Johnson is off the table for a drooling Matt Millen, the Lions have to take what drops in their lap, and that is JaMarcus Russell. Russell is the best QB in the draft and probably the number two player in the draft. The Lions have running backs, receivers, and if I have learned anything from Bill Belichick its that you can get good linemen later in the daft if you do your homework. Currently, the mock draft I’m looking at has Detroit taking Joe Thomas (OT, Wisconsin) and Trent Edwards with their first two picks. And actually, if the Raiders do what everyone thinks they are planning on, then I’d be all for Thomas and Edwards with Russell off the table, because despite my previous statements about taking the best player, the Lions cannot… absolutely can not take another wide receiver.

Cleveland Browns

Biggest mistakes made with the third overall pick*: Heath Shuler, Joey Harrington, Gerard Warren, Andre Wadsworth, Bruce Pickens and Akili Smith

Cleveland needs a QB, kind of sort of. I think Cleveland is a team who could get by with a decent quarterback but a stellar offensive line. Yes, Brady Quinn (QB, Notre Dame) is the number two QB on the list, but with Joe Thomas skipping down the third spot (assuming of course that everyone does what I want them to), the Browns cannot pass on the best offensive linemen in the draft. Right now, they are projected to take Brady Quinn and USC offensive lineman Ryan Kalil. So we know they need linemen, but Brady Quinn is not third pick material.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Biggest mistakes made with the fourth overall pick*: Peter Warrick, Keith McCants, Brent Fullwood and Art Schlichter

Well, Tampa is going to need a new coach too after Gruden jumps off the roof once Calvin Johnson goes number one. But the Bucs need to start building their defense back up. A wide receiver won’t keep their opponents out of the endzone, and the defense that took them to the Super Bowl is aging quickly. Greg Spires and Simeon Rice are each over the hill, and the best defender on the board also happens to be a defensive end: Jamaal Anderson out of Arkansas. That’s their guy, its either him or take Clemson end Gaines Adams who has more versatility. Mock drafts say they take Calvin Johnson and Texas safety Michael Griffin, which doesn’t make that much sense to me when Brandon Meriweather (safety, Miami) would still be available in the same mock up.

Arizona Cardinals

Biggest mistakes made with the fifth overall pick*: Curtis Enis, Mike Junkin and Rickey Dixon

I think the Cardinals are sitting very pretty in this spot, as they need help on the defensive front, and will probably have two of three players to pick from: Jamaal Anderson, Gaines Adams, or Amobi Okoye (DT, Louisville). As long as they stick to one of the three, they can’t go wrong. My favorite use of this pick though would be to trade down to get Alan Branch out of Michigan, Florida defensive end/outside linebacker Jarvis Moss, or Purdue defensive end/outside linebacker Anthony Spencer. Arizona really is a team who has the luxury to almost take whoever they get (besides RB, WR, and QB), so if they don’t trade this pick, I will have to assume they wear velcro shoes as they need extra picks to help improve all over the field.

Mock ups have them taking Gaines Adams and Paul Posluszny (LB, Penn State) with their fist two picks. Again, Adams isn’t a bad option, but they could do very well trading down and adding a second or third rounder.

*Worst all-time first-round picks (Yahoo! Sports)